We’re still a long way from seeing the 2022 NFL season in action, but that doesn’t mean the league has been silent. We summarize the most important news in this edition of our NFL Betting Notebook.
NFL Notebook: May 29
Click each item to read the full update.
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A look at Pennsylvania
Philadelphia. Pittsburgh. Two NFL households, both of equal dignity, in beautiful Pennsylvania, where we play our scene…
With the release of the schedule, prompting some sportsbooks to release NFL betting odds for every single game (excluding the Cleveland Browns), football fans can now compare and compare these weekly spreads to the futures markets, such as:
It’s by no means perfect practice, but it definitely tells a narrative about which teams are bookmakers heading into 2022 and where perhaps there could be some value if we take these forecast lines at face value.
When we compare 2022 spreads to 2022 season win totals, we see some glaring discrepancies in the predictions when we add this +/- and split the difference on pick ’em games (and our best estimate for competitions with relinquish interest of the Browns).
It seems the two Pennsylvania franchises are the most divisive in this point-spread-pissing contest, with books pinning the Steelers to final disfavor after 18 seasons without a lost record. The Eagles, on the other hand, could be on the verge of a breakout year and be seeded underdogs in just three games. Yes, that’s right.
At the top of the board we find the NFL elite, regularly installed as point spread favorites in more games than their season’s overall wins give them credit for. Obviously, the odds makers give these top teams the benefit of the doubt because their cap is higher:
| team | Season win O/U | propagation projection | difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 (below -120) | 16.5 wins | +5.0 |
| Chargers from Los Angeles | 10 (above -125) | 14 wins | +4.0 |
| buffalo bills | 11.5 (above -140) | 14.5 wins | +3.0 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.5 (above -140) | 12.5 wins | +3.0 |
| Green Bay packers | 11 (above -110) | 14 wins | +3.0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.5 (above -110) | 13.5 wins | +3.0 |
| Philly Eagles | 9.5 (above -120) | 12.5 wins | +3.0 |
Everything seems fine until we see Philadelphia among those contenders. This is an Eagles roster set as second pick to win the NFC East (behind Dallas) and a team teetering on a postseason spot judging by overall wins and yes/no playoff prop.
Since the release of the schedule, which rolled out one of the softest tables in Philly’s favor (30th in SOS), the Eagles’ overall wins have gone from 8.5 (above -140) to 9.5 (above -120) and their division futures slipped from +250 to +165 with playoff prop going from yes -115/no -105 to yes -190/no +150.
As for the biggest difference between spread forecasts and seasonal earnings at the bottom of the board, we see an inversion of the theory above. The books are tougher than what their win totals say for these terrible teams from game to game, knowing that “some days the sun even shines on a dog’s bum” and there are bound to be a few surprises along the way (we had 12 teams with +7.5 or higher win 2021 outright).
| team | Total win of the season | propagation projection | difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 5.0 (below -140) | 1.0 wins | -4.0 |
| Houston Texans | 4.5 (below -120 | 0.5 wins | -4.0 |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5 (above -120) | 2.5 wins | -4.0 |
| Carolina Panther | 6.0 (below -125) | 2.5 wins | -3.5 |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5 (above -120) | 3.0 wins | -3.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.0 (above -120) | 2.5 wins | -3.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 (below -120) | 4.0 wins | -3.5 |
The Steelers stick out from under this insane table like a sore thumb, with bookies putting their season winnings total at 7.5. But judging by early-bird spreads for 2022 (which includes two games against Cleveland in which I expect Pittsburgh to be the dog — if Deshaun Watson is under center), we see how daunting this upcoming season is for the Could be black and yellow.
Pittsburgh’s schedule, ranked 12th in SOS, is crazy tough right now within the AFC North. Mitchell Trubisky (or maybe Kenny Pickett) would be the worst starting QB in the division against three teams that have big plans for the postseason. The Divisional Futures have Pittsburgh as a +1,100 long shot to win the AFC North — uncharted territory for Mike Tomlin’s team, which has won at least eight games since 2004.
In addition to these division enemies, the Steelers’ roster itself is working against success. Pittsburgh has a rough run between Week 5 and Week 8 (@BUF, vs. TBY, @MIA, @PHI) and another run of the gauntlet between Week 12 and Week 15 (@IND, @ATL, vs. BAL, @CAR). Needless to say, a projected rough start to the post-Ben era.
Great order in KC
The Kansas City Chiefs traded speed for size after moving from Tyreek Hill to Miami and are trying to spread the love, at least according to their OTA release.
Head coach Andy Reid is taking a “cheetah by committee” approach this spring, and while balancing Hill’s playmaking speed is a tall order, that’s exactly what the Chiefs are leaning on with their passing additions like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes scantling.
Those WRs are among Patrick Mahomes’ towering targets for 2022, with Smith-Schuster 6-foot-1, veteran wideout Josh Gordon 6-foot-3, Valdes-Scantling 6-foot-4, UDFA wildcard Justyn Ross standing 6-foot-4 and All-World TE Travis Kelce with a measurement of 6-foot-5.
That size could help increase the Chiefs’ touchdown percentage in the red zone. Kansas City has finished in the top 6 in points every season since Mahomes broke out in 2018, when it was first in points (34.8 PPG) and second in TD percentage within the red zone (73.08%).
However, KC has ranked 11th, 16th, and 11th in TD percentage for the past three seasons, and the Chiefs have stayed below the 30-point plateau in those campaigns — and may have left some points on the table, when they are within the 20 yard line.
Along with these big men boxing in the end zone, Kansas City complements that greatness with burners Mecole Hardman and much-hyped rookie Skyy Moore (both nursing hamstring injuries in OTAs) along with dual threat RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC does it sure love it some hyphenated names).
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— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) May 25, 2022
Haven’t seen odds for the team to score the most goals this season but you can shoot Mahomes to make the most of those big bad receivers and lead the league in touchdown passes at +550 at PointsBet.
Brittney’s husband is behind only Tom Brady (+500) and ahead of Matt Stafford (+700) and Aaron Rodgers (+900) in this market. He threw 50 touchdown passes in 2018 and has TD totals of 37, 38, and 26 over the past three seasons.
Lamb lion
The Dallas Cowboys went all-in on WR CeeDee Lamb when they sold Amari Cooper to the Browns this offseason.
Lamb is now the Cowboys’ go-to man, playing 16 games in 2021 and catching 79 passes for 1,102 yards and six touchdowns. Cooper played a game fewer, had 68 catches but made eight TDs for a Dallas offense that ran hot and cold but still finished fourth overall in passing yards per game.
Everyone at The Star is confident Lamb will rise to the occasion, from the front office to dressing room neighbor Dak Prescott, despite the WR dropping the seventh-most balls in the league in their third year of 2021.
Lamb will definitely have the replays to make everyone forget about Amari, considering Option #2 Michael Gallup is still out after injuring his knee in the playoffs. Dallas depth chart shows James Washington and Jalen Tolbert as the closest WRs.
Lamb is listed at +2,000 to lead the NFL in receiving yards in 2022 – the ninth pick for this prop market at PointsBet. He was 16th on the list when he hooked up with Cooper last season.
Here’s every big performance from #Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb during the 2021 NFL season: pic.twitter.com/MBDnpkwUlg
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) May 25, 2022
early opinions
Week 1 odds slow the bubbling on the board with a summer simmering away before the September heat ramps up. And since the opening week lines were released, the books have taken extra action on a few week one matchups.
According to BetMGM, the top-bet games (by ticket count) of Week 1 are the season opener between the Bills and Rams, Saints at Falcons and Eagles at Lions. Going hand in hand, New Orleans -4, Philadelphia -3.5 and Buffalo +1 are the most popular picks in terms of bets placed.
But when it comes to cold hard handle (total bet) — a better indicator of where the sharper or more professional play might be — early risers come out on top with Denver -4.5 in Seattle, New Orleans -4.5 in Atlanta, and Kansas City -3 in Arizona.
That’s a lot of love for street teams to point things out. Visitors started the 2021 campaign 8-7 straight up, 9-6 against the week 1 spread and are 53-55-2 SU and 59-48-3 ATS (55%) in season openers since 2015.
Check out the full NFL schedule, matchups, odds and more!
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