In the latest Fantasy Footballers DFS podcast, Kyle and I walked all over the NFC looking for values for DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook for winning totals and other NFL futures markets.
For those who need a visual, here’s a breakdown of all 16 teams, along with our favorite plays for those teams in May. We covered the AFC in this episode of the podcast and it can also be found in article form here.
Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys have lost many key parts this offseason, including edge pass rusher Randy Gregory and two starting offensive linemen, as well as star WR Amari Cooper. They’re also a team that benefited heavily from turnovers last year, leading the NFL by a +14 turnover difference AND leading the league in turnover points scored. In general, we know that turnover and defensive performance aren’t sticky year after year, so we’re trying to fade the Cowboys’ defense this season. Additionally, a year ago, this team only won three games against playoff teams, and two of those wins came against the Eagles, who barely made it. Despite this, Dak is still among the top 10 NFL QBs in real life, and the Cowboys have a huge advantage on their schedule. They’re playing six games this year against teams playing in a short week, two more than any other side in the league. We stay away from their total of 10 wins at DK, but don’t mind undercutting by 10.5 at FanDuel.
Philly Eagles – The Eagles have had one of the best offseasons of any team in football, and the market is certainly adjusting to those moves. After trading for AJ Brown during the NFL draft and signing James Bradberry, the public everywhere depends on this team, making it a scary investment at this point. We placed value on this team when they were +275 to win the NFC East a few weeks ago, but now they’re +190 and their overall wins have gone from 8.5 to 9.5. If you hold an O8.5 winning ticket you should be excited, but now that the market has changed so drastically, let’s stay away from their winning totals and their futures markets. However, if you really want to get into the Eagles hype, we think dropping a small bet on Jalen Hurts to gain MVP at +4000 on Caesar’s is interesting.
Washington commanders – This team has pretty safe ground thanks to a soft schedule. The NFC East plays the AFC South this year, and Washington is lucky enough to also play the Falcons, Bears and Lions. In addition, many of their most difficult games this season will be played at home. Kyle set that line (and we talked about it on a previous show) when it was 7.5, but now that it’s 8 wins we’re largely staying away from that line, but we wouldn’t blame anyone who it wanted to talk its way into the fading Carson Wentz.
New York Giants – Call us crazy, but the Giants winning the NFC East at +900 is something we’re into. I know, I know. This team ran a QB sneak at their own 5 in 3rd place last year only to stab in 4th place, but that was with, shall we say, a less-than-stellar combination from Jason Garrett and Joe Judge. Now Brian Daboll is in town and there is actually a plan in the front office. Given the weaknesses of all the above teams, if we can play Daniel Jones at backup level (yes, maybe that’s asking a lot), we think there are ways to make this team successful in 2022. We also participate in the over of their total winnings. New York has the simplest schedule, according to Warren Sharp, which includes 4th place games against the Panthers and the Seahawks.
Green Bay packers – If you can find an U11 out there in the overall wins market, we’re in it. Listen, Aaron Rodgers can do something crazy and take those wins to 12 or 13 wins, but that depth chart is… not great, Bob. Sammy Watkins is already in the squad bubble, Randall Cobb is 32, Allen Lazard is good for what he is and Christian Watson is a rookie who has played four seasons at FCS. Davante Adams accounted for over 30% of this team’s yards and TDs last season, and that loss could prove massive for this team. In addition, the Packers have the according to Warren Sharp, the worst residual disadvantage in the NFL. All in all, we love Aaron Jones for his fantasy thanks to his insane splits without Davante Adams and already have a bet on him being Offensive Player of the Year at +10000, which is ridiculous. According to our podcast recording, Jones has the same chances of winning this award as superstars Randall Cobb, Odell Beckham (who is currently unemployed and recovering from ACL surgery), Marcus Mariota, Kadarius Toney, Cedrick Wilson and Curtis Samuel. What?
Minnesota Vikings – As the Packers’ correlated fade this year, we’re in when the Vikings win the division at +300 on DraftKings and +340 on FanDuel. It’s getting a little thin at +275, but it’s definitely still in the game. The Vikings should see plenty of positive throwbacks this season when it comes to winning close games. In their first 15 games they played in 14 one-score games which if you’re a Vikings fan probably got your blood pressure readings skyrocketing last fall! To say how insane this stat is, it breaks the all-time record for one-possession games in a season.
Chicago Bears – We don’t want to overdramatize here, but this could be an absolute train wreck. For me personally, this is my biggest accomplishment of the season as I fell short of this team’s overall wins. Kyle and I both bet on U7 wins and still think U6.5 is a very strong game. According to Vegas Look Ahead Lines, Chicago is only favored in two games all year… yikes. We like Justin Fields and his Fantasy advantage, but how can this team pick up points from behind a poor offensive line with playmakers like Velus Jones Jr. and Byron Pringle?
Detroit Lions – Kyle is a little more interested in fading this team with the knowledge that the public seems to be supporting the struggling Dan Campbells. I personally won the division at +1100 as a long shot with this team a few weeks ago. My rationale here is that a year ago in the NFL this team was 4th best against the spread, and that included games where TJ Hockenson, Jared Goff and D’Andre Swift weren’t in the lineup. With a young core of good players, the Lions might surprise some people if Jared Goff can offer average to above average QB play. As discussed above, the bears are probably terrible and the Vikings have their weaknesses. If we let the Packers fade, it probably makes sense to correlate with a small bet on this fun, up-and-coming Lions team. Still, their defenses look awful and that’s an obvious concern. Last year they placed 31st in points allowable and 30th in Football Outsiders Weighted DVOA.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – This team doesn’t have much value this season as they are almost guaranteed to win their division as long as Tom Brady stays healthy. Given that you need to put -300, let’s stay away from anything involving your division odds. However, given the weakness of the entire NFC conference, we don’t hate to buy into this team in the futures market, which could also include the Bucs winning the NFC at +330, the Super Bowl at +700, or Tom Brady The MVP Market.
New Orleans Saints – We’re not showing a huge lead on the Saints’ overall wins, but we definitely like a “yes” to make the playoffs at +150. We talked about this on a podcast before the NFL Draft when the same bet was +160. With weak NFC, 9 wins will likely get a wildcard spot and very likely take home the division crown with the Bucs putting the Saints in the wildcard race. A year ago, no team had more offensive line injuries than the Saints. New Orleans led the NFL in the number of offensive line starting combinations in 2021, and while the loss of Terron Armstead hurts, the team drafted replacement Trevor Penning in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. This team also goes from one of the worst WR rooms in the league last year to a 3WR set of Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave. As long as we get league average QB play from Jameis Winston, this team should be playing postseason football.
Carolina Panther – Let’s be honest – This is going to be bad. As Kyle so eloquently stated on the DFS podcast, “Even Sam Darnold’s mom doesn’t believe in him anymore.” Granted, he couldn’t be wrong. Seriously, if this coaching staff wants to keep their jobs, they absolutely cannot run Sam Darnold all season. A year ago, Darnold ranked 29th in yards per attempt and 24th in adjusted completion rate among 32 QBs who recorded 250 drop backs with a riveting TD to INT ratio of 9 to 13. That means, that they will likely turn to third-rounder Matt Corral for multiple starts this season. Bet under.
Atlanta Falcons – This line opened at 5.5 and immediately moved to 5.0. While it may feel scary to undercut with such a low win tally, let’s not forget that Marcus Mariota is this team’s starting QB. We have identified seven total winnable games in their schedule. Big time, yikes!
Los Angeles Rams – The Super Bowl champions are like in no man’s land. Their roster is full and they are clearly one of the best teams in the NFC. Their overall payline feels right, and betting on them winning the conference or repeating themselves as Super Bowl champions feels like a silly bet considering how difficult it is to repeat in this league. We stay away from the Rams in the betting markets.
San Francisco 49ers – The Niners are a really tough team to predict given the uncertainty on the QB and as such we stay away from them in the betting market. Kyle’s predictions show a slight undershoot at 10 wins, but at 9.5 it’s definitely not a bet for us.
Arizona Cardinals – Kyle claimed on the show that winning under 9.5 at FanDuel was his biggest stance of the offseason. Arizona got off to a hot start a year ago, but by and large turned out to be… shall we say cheating? … on the route. This team now faces a 2nd-place schedule that includes an absolute gauntlet run at home against Chiefs, Chargers, Bucs, Rams, Patriots, 49ers, Saints and Eagles. With DeAndre Hopkins suspended for six games and this team relying on the corpses of AJ Green and Zach Ertz as playmakers, we have no problem fading the Cardinals and Kliff Kingsbury.
Seattle Seahawks – We’ll learn a lot about Seattle and their coaching staff in 2022 as they begin life after Russell Wilson. Pete Carrol seems determined to establish the run on early downs, despite the fact that it’s a highly inefficient way of running an offense, and consistently relies on Russell Wilson to save them on 3rd downs. Everyone and their mother knows that the demotion from Russell Wilson to Drew Lock or Geno Smith is huge, and as a result, that team’s win total was quickly reduced from a 6 to a 5.5. At 5.5 this is getting a little thin as they have some winnable games thanks to a 4th place schedule.