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The 2024 MLB campaign begins in full later this week. With that in mind, let's take a closer look at the futures markets and highlight the places where I see the most value.
Let's start with the AL Cy Young Award.
| player | opportunities |
|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | +800 |
| Kevin Gausman | +850 |
| Luis Castillo | +850 |
| Pablo Lopez | +850 |
| Cole Ragans | +1000 |
| Framber Valdez | +1000 |
| Drag Skubal | +1000 |
| George Kirby | +1400 |
| Grayson Rodríguez | +2000 |
| Logan Gilbert | +2000 |
| Joe Ryan | +3000 |
| Kyle Bradish | +3000 |
| Shane Bieber | +3000 |
| Zach Eflin | +3000 |
| Carlos Rodon | +4000 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | +4000 |
| Jose Berrios | +5000 |
Corbin Burnes (+800)
Burnes is getting a lot of love early in the year, and rightly so. He is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league and should benefit greatly from joining the Orioles. With the run support of one of the most talented offensive teams in the MLB, his margin for error will be much higher than it was with the Brewers.
Baltimore's park factors could also help him keep the ball in the yard, which was a bit of an issue last season. Only 24 pitchers gave up more home runs than Burnes. Milwaukee has the fourth-best hitter-friendly stadium in terms of home runs, according to Ballpark Pal, while the Orioles rank 20th.
Burnes will have to contend with some strong offenses in the AL East, but playing a majority of his games at Camden Yards should help lower his home run numbers. Consider that he could also be flirting with 200 strikeouts while racking up wins on an elite team, and there's a lot that could appeal to Burnes.
Framber Valdez (+1000)
Valdez ticks all the boxes for a potential Cy Young winner: He eats up innings, constantly induces grounders, doesn't allow much hard contact and delivers wins.
I think he can and will be better than he was a year ago when he had a strong season. He should be able to reduce the home runs allowed. Even as a pitcher at the Astros' hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park, he did a great job on that front in 2021 and 2022, and there's no reason he can't get back into form.
His potential wins should be as assured as any starter's when he leaves the game. Guys like Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly and offseason addition Josh Hader will be eager to step in and shut out opposing hitters.
Valdez could threaten for the league lead in innings pitched and should be at or near the top of the list in wins. If he can If we reduce the long ball like we have seen in the past, the sky is the limit.
Zach Eflin (+3000)
Eflin made the jump from “good” to “great” in his first season with the Rays. Among all pitchers who started at least 15 games last season, Eflin ranked 12th in batting average, second in walk rate and fourth in xwOBA.
He hit the strike zone early and often and was able to always work from the front when scoring. He did this masterfully, locating his throws very well and causing many grounders on balls put into play.
With Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs out following Tommy John surgeries and Tyler Glasnow heading to the Dodgers, Eflin is at the top of the rotation. I think he will put together another outstanding campaign for a Rays team that always manages to be competitive.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.
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