A great way to identify the value of the NFL futures markets during the offseason is to track where the hot money is going. At Caesars Sportsbook, New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston was the most popular bet to lead the league in passing in 2022 by big-money bettors. Winston’s price has been reduced from +7500 to +4000, which is on par with Tua Tagovailoa and Carson Wentz.
Jameis Winston’s 2021 season
Winston played in just seven games last season before suffering a season-ending cruciate ligament tear, but his numbers have been modest in that regard. If you remove the game against the Buccaneers in which Winston tore his cruciate ligament, he was only averaging 185.6 yards per game, which would be only 31st in the NFL. Winston’s 14 touchdowns from just three interceptions were of the higher caliber, but leading the NFL in passing yards would be a huge leap from his performance last year.
Improved Saint pass catching
Last season, the Saints’ leading passcatchers were Alvin Kamara with 47 receptions and Marquez Callaway with 46 receptions — they were the only two players with 40+ catches. However, the Saints went to great lengths to revive the team’s offseason pass catching. First-round rookie Chris Olave has a pro-ready game with smooth route running and natural hands – I wouldn’t be shocked if he led all rookies at receptions. Jarvis Landry also helps provide a veteran presence.
The biggest question mark for the Saints is the health of Michael Thomas. The former All-Pro wideout is reportedly not yet 100% healthy, and head coach Dennis Allen told reporters Thursday that he is considered “doubtful” about attending the team’s mandatory mini-camp. Thomas only played seven games in 2020 after injuring his ankle, missed all of 2021 after having surgery on the same ankle and later suffered a setback. His health is paramount to Winston’s success.
Winston’s odds for other awards
Jameis Winston is a top contender for the Comeback Player of the Year award after leading the Saints to a 5-2 record as a starter last year and his odds currently range from +550 to +650 depending on your sports book . Winston is also listed at around +8000 to win the MVP award, which would be quite a jump for the player. One aspect that could keep Winston from picking up flashy numbers at these awards is the prospect of the Saints once again having one of the best defenses in the NFL.
The judgment
A Virginia bettor placed a $2,000 bet on Jameis Winston to lead the league in passing for a potential $100,000 payout. Another Nevada bettor placed a $1,000 bet on Winston for a potential payout of $80,000. If you can find odds around +7000 then a healthy Winston can certainly have value as these big bets suggest.
However, Jameis Winston’s passing volume has been severely limited over the past year and the arrivals of Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry may not be enough to change that. Michael Thomas’ health is worth watching as a healthy Thomas changes the equation, but there’s nothing to suggest he’s returning to an All-Pro level.
The loss of Terron Armstead could also mean Winston’s productivity as rookie Trevor Penning has a lot of work to do to refine his pass protection to come anywhere close to Armstead’s elite game. The Saints’ defense, which is one of the best in the NFL, will also limit passing volume, and I don’t think Winston is incredibly likely to challenge the top names at quarterback for the top numbers in passing yardage.
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