A single snapshot of what prices could be on the last day of 2024.getty
Futures markets are aptly named – their prices at any given time reflect the collective wisdom of what all market participants trading a particular futures contract believe the price will be at a given point in the future.
A quick look at futures prices for the calendar year ending 2023 (*see footnotes below for sources) can provide clues as to what prices of certain commodities might be at the end of 2024. Below is a look at five of the most popular commodities, first their current prices for 2023 and then their projected prices for the end of 2024.
Using the first nearby futures contract (also known as the spot futures price) for each commodity as of the close of trading on the last business day of 2023, the current prices were as follows:
Gold: $2,062.40/oz.
Silver: $23,853/oz.
WTI crude oil: $71.65/bbl.
Corn: $4,712/bu.
BitcoinBTC: $42,679.74/BTC
Using the futures contract for each commodity that will be the first nearby futures contract (spot futures) on New Year's Eve 2024 and using the prices for these contracts as of this New Year's Eve 2023 (the same date on which the above prices were determined) can be derive the expected price changes that the markets expect in the coming calendar year. Prices are listed below, with the net percent change from the previous year in parentheses for convenience:
Gold: $2,175.3/oz. (+5.5%)
Silver: $25,195/oz. (+5.6%)
WTI crude oil: $69.6/bbl. (-2.9%)
Corn: $5,142/bu. (+9.1%)
BitcoinBTC: $45,385/BTC (+6.3%)
Of course, no one and no futures contract can predict the future with certainty, and markets rarely, if ever, move in one direction over a year. The above values and their net percentage changes represent only what markets believed at the close of business on the last trading day of 2023. No more and no less.
The only thing that is certain at this time is that all of the above markets are likely to experience much greater volatility in 2024 than the net percentage changes provided above suggest. Happy New Year to all!
*Futures prices are from the CME GroupCME public website via the following links:
Gold:
Silver:
WTI crude oil:
Corn:
Bitcoin:
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I am a commodities-focused entrepreneur with over three decades of experience in the physical and derivative energy and agricultural commodity markets. The opinions expressed are solely my own.
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