After three weeks we have some additional tips and predictions for NFL futures betting.
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Kansas City Chiefs win AFC West (-120)
The AFC West was expected to be the most feared and competitive division in the league. Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson and Carr, surrounded by good to great rosters, easily made this division the strongest in the league early in the season. So far, it’s pretty clear that neither of these teams has lived up to expectations.
Not much needs to be said about the Raiders. They are 0-3 and the Josh McDaniels era has got off to a brutal start. With such a tough schedule, I’m forecasting them a meager 6.5 wins this season.
Denver finally got the franchise quarterback they were chasing and paired him with an offensive-minded head coach, but it was defense that kept the Broncos afloat. Denver is yet to score multiple touchdowns or reach 20 points in a game. They rank 13th in EPA/Play but only 29th in pass rate. They had some bad luck in the red zone which will rebound but this is an offense still struggling to move football. This also becomes a problem for the pre-season co-favorite in the NFC West.
The Chargers’ offensive prospects for the remainder of the season are much bleaker following an injury to Rashawn Slater, a massive loss for their offensive line. Justin Herbert is also struggling with an injury, and Keenan Allen, an aging player and key weapon, is struggling with a hamstring problem. The defense has also been disappointing after being shredded by the Jaguars last week, Joey Bosa being placed on injured reserve and JC Jackson missing for a couple of weeks. After much hype and hope for the teams in this division, it looks like it will be a one-horse race.
While their division enemies have faltered, the Chiefs have remained stable. Yes, they had a tough loss against the Colts, but they should have won that game. It took a muted punt, a missed field goal, and a botched field goal for Indianapolis to sneak this game away from Kansas City. The Chiefs are still the best team in this division and a top 3 team in the league. After losing Tyreek Hill, we expected this offense to start slowly as Mahomes built chemistry with his new weapons and found a new way to attack defense. While it doesn’t look like it, the Chiefs’ offense has actually gotten off to a hot start as they rank 2nd in EPA/Play and 4th in win rate, and that should only get better as the season progresses.
After injuries, slow starts and coaching mishaps, the AFC West is looking deadly compared to what we expected at the start of the season. The Chiefs remain the clear best team and favorite in this division. I’m predicting Kansas City at 11.8 wins, Los Angeles at 9.1, Denver at 8.7 and Las Vegas at 6.5. At -120, I want Kansas City to be repeated as the AFC West champion.
Josh Allen named Defensive Player of the Year (+10000)
This is the longest of any long shot bet I’ve placed in a futures article, but I think Allen has real value at this price. After being drafted seventh overall in 2019, Allen has had a promising start to his career. He was a solid player in a poor Jaguars defense for three years. In year four, Allen is fully broken, stepping into the national spotlight and bringing with him the Jacksonville defense.
The Jaguars were a pleasant surprise for three weeks. Their defense has been outstanding in three games. They rank eighth in the PFF team defense class, third in the EPA/Play Allowed, and second in the win rate against. They also rank 4th in the Football Outsiders DVOA (Defensive-Adjusted Value over Average). Josh Allen drove that dominance. He currently ranks sixth among rim defenders in the PFF class (eighth among all defenders), third in pressure (16), second in quarterback hits (6), seventh in Eiles (8) and ninth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate (24%). The only theme in his stat profile so far is sacks. Bag production is noisy, the variance in bag totals makes it a statistic that is not a reliable indicator of future production. If you look at Allen’s stat profile, he’s under high pressure, scoring, rushing and winning big as a pass rusher. Those are the things that will lead to bags. Allen already has two sacks in the season that ranks for 20th in the league, but I expect more to come.
Some of the problems with Allen’s case for DPOY are that the competition is incredibly stiff, with Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Nick Bosa and Von Miller the clear frontrunners for the award. Jacksonville is also a team with only bad vibes. They sucked forever, so unwary voters won’t look to a pass rusher from the Jaguars and vote for him. Another problem is first-round pick Travon Walker and defensive rookie-of-the-year candidate Devin Lloyd. These two players arriving in Jacksonville correlate with the team’s rise to success, so they may deserve more credit.
Given all of these considerations, I think +10000 is too long odds. Allen has been one of the best defenders in the league this season and while there are many obstacles standing in his way to actually winning this award, his implied odds are only 1% as a result. Make sure you look around futures markets, especially awards, as you will see Allen quoted somewhere between +5000 and +10000. Make sure you get the best odds available to maximize expected value.
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