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During the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will be providing a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on both the future and each game for the day.
I provided my updated predictions and pre-playoff futures on the Thursday before the wild card round.
Below, I’ll address how to approach betting on these playoff series, whether on the moneyline series or on a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB model predictions.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on the Action Network app (both the PRO Projections tab and game pages) and our projections hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also check our odds page for the best lines.
Where can we find actionable value based on my predictions on Friday?
Money Line Corner series
Here are my updated series moneyline projections for the wild card round:
As I mentioned in my Thursday Futures article, you can bet on the underdogs of the series at the following price targets:
I placed bets on the Padres (+150, 0.5u), Phillies (+120, 1.25u) and Rays (+110, 1u) while holding a superior price on the Mariners.
My predictions for Philadelphia and Tampa Bay are less optimistic than publicly available predictions and both teams represent a highly actionable betting opportunity.
Conversely, I’m a little more optimistic about the Padres than other forecasts. I would place a smaller pre-Game 1 bet on San Diego in anticipation of improving our series position going into Game 2.
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, 12:07 p.m. ET
Shane McClanahan vs. Shane Bieber (full projections here)
While I favor Tampa Bay in all three games in this series and show value on their series price, NL Pennant odds, and World Series odds in the futures markets, I have a slight hesitation in backing Shane McClanahan (2.78 x ERA , 2.60xFIP, 2.82 SIERA).
The southpaw was the AL Cy Young favorite at one point this season but went to the IL in late August with a shoulder injury and struggled in four starts after returning to action (19 IP, 8 BB, 12 K, 4 HR allowed, 5.14 xFIP ). His swinging strike rate dropped from 16.3% before the IL stint to 9.6% after, although his speed remained intact (and increased by an average of 0.5 mph).
Perhaps the performance hit is just a small blip on the radar. Still, I’m moderately concerned about the noticeable loss of command.
That concern is mitigated somewhat by Cleveland’s offensive split. While they were considered an above-average offense against right-handers (104 wRC+, 11th place) and had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching (17.3%), their numbers against left-handed pitching decreased noticeably (84 wRC+, 27th w a deletion rate of 20.7%, 10.).
McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Josh Fleming, Brooks Raley, and Garrett Cleavinger saw relatively heavy usage in this series.
Even after lowering his projections slightly, I still see McClanahan as a slightly better pitcher than Shane Bieber (3.51 xERA, 2.98 xFIP, 3.20 SIERA).
And while Cleveland has the superior bullpen metrics all season, I’m modeling the Rays’ current bullpen as the slightly better unit.
I predicted Tampa Bay at -110 (52.4% implied) in both halves of Friday’s matchup and would place both the first five innings (F5) and the moneylines of the Rays’ entire game at around -101 (50.25% implied ) put edge to two percent compared to my projections.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals, 2:07 p.m. ET
Zack Wheeler vs. Jose Quintana (full projections here)
I was admittedly surprised to see the Cardinals’ name Jose Quintana (3.85 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, 4.02 SIERA) as their starter in Game 1. While I’m not predicting a huge difference between Quintana and Miles Mikolas, the Phillies are certainly better against lefties (115 wrC+, 6th place) than righties (102 wRC+, 12th place).
And that southpaw split is up eight percent (3rd place) in the two months since the close.
Conversely, the Cardinals are in their lesser split against Zack Wheeler (3.10 xERA, 3.06 xFIP, 3.19 SIERA). St. Louis had the #1 attack against lefties (130 wRC+) this season, but had the 5th best attack against righties (109 wRC+), and my model gives Philadelphia an offensive advantage for that — in addition to the initial pitching advantage Matchup Game 1.
In addition, their bullpen projects are also the slightly better unit. And that’s even assuming Ryan Helsley is 100% pro-Cardinals after pinching a finger on his pitching hand this week.
While the Cardinals are a top-three defensive team in my model, Philadelphia shuffled some pieces towards the end of the year and emerged as an above-average defensive club, despite what the season’s metrics might suggest.
I projected Philadelphia’s F5 line at -133 (57% implied) and their total playing line at -115 (53.4% implied) for Friday and would take the Phillies’ money line to -122 (55% implied) and -106 (51, 4% implies) put ), respectively.
And I’d consider betting an Under 7 at -115 or better, with Busch Stadium playing about five percent below park norm given Friday’s weather conditions (a total predicted score of 6.35).
Finally, considering I’m predicting the Phillies as -115 and -118 favorites for the first two games of this series, I’d bet on their -1.5 game margin or win the series 2-0 at +265 at Draftkings ; compared to my fair odds of +245.
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07 p.m. ET
Luis Castillo vs Alex Manoah (full projections here)
Happy to see Luis Castillo (3.31 xERA, 3.23 xFIP, 3.35 SIERA) back in the postseason after a career appearance in the 2020 Extended Playoffs.
My predictions see him as a highly comparable pitcher to Alek Manoah (3.31 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA) hitting fewer batters but making weaker contact.
Toronto has a clear offensive advantage in this series, especially against right-handed pitching, where the gap in the splits (118 wrC+ vs. 106 for Seattle) is more pronounced than the gap to the left-handers (five percent).
Seattle has the superior bullpen and could prove to be the best live betting team if their top arms are fresh. Still, I give Toronto a slight defensive advantage after a significant improvement compared to last season.
While I put Toronto’s F5 line at -122 on Thursday, I would need -125 (55.6% implied) or better to complete this bet by about a two percent margin compared to my prediction (-135, 57.5 % implies) to place. And I wouldn’t force a bet on anything higher than that price target.
I’m not showing any value in terms of totals and would refrain from betting on this game unless Toronto’s F5 line comes within range again.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets, 8:07 p.m. ET
Yu Darvish vs Max Scherzer (full projections here)
I’ll generally try to support and bet against the Mets against right-handed pitching (119 wRC+, 2nd) if I face left-handed pitching (109 wRC+, 12th) during these playoffs. Especially if they get by without Starling Marte (153 wRC+ vs. Lefties) and Darrin Ruf (116) for the first lap or two.
The Mets’ divisions have been more pronounced since the close (128 wRC+ vs. righties, 1st; 107 wRC+ vs. lefties, 11th) as they acquired a pair of left-handed sticks in Tyler Naquin and Daniel Vogelbach to bolster their offense.
The Padres’ offense has been closer to the league average all season no matter how you slice it.
Scherzer (2.87 xERA, 3.23 xFIP, 3.06 SIERA) is undoubtedly the better pitcher compared to Darvish (3.54 xERA, 3.58 xFIP, 3.39 SIERA) and my model gives New York too a very slight bullpen advantage; although the bridge between one of their starting pitchers and Edwin Diaz (1.69 xERA, 1.04 xFIP, 1.11 SIERA) can be a bit shaky.
I’m excited to see how much pressure the Mets will put on Diaz this postseason. and whether Buck Showalter regularly uses him in multi-inning stints, which he did in just four of 61 appearances that year.
For those who don’t know, Diaz has beaten more than half of all batters he faced in 2022 (50.2%), which is mind-blowing:
Ultimately, my moneyline predictions for this game are consistent with the betting market. I would need +143 (41.5% implied) or better to support the Padres, but I doubt the line will go that high.
In terms of totals, I would consider putting the F5 above 3 (-110) versus my prediction (3.38), but I prefer the Mets F5 team total above 1.5 (-110) compared to my team prediction (1.85); and I would bet on that number to -115.
Betting for October 7th
- New York Mets F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-110 at DraftKings), bet on -115
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-110 at BetMGM, 1u), bet on -122
- Philadelphia Phillies (-105 at BetRivers, 0.5u), bet on -106
- Philadelphia Phillies win Series 2-0 (+265 at Draftkings, 0.25u)
- Tampa Bay Rays F5 (+104 on FanDuel, 0.5u), bet on +100
- Tampa Bay Rays (+110 on FanDuel, 0.5u), bet on +100
- Toronto Blue Jays F5 (-122 on FanDuel, 0.5u), bet on -125
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