Los Angeles Angels two-way player Shohei Ohtani is pictured during spring practice in Tempe, Arizona March 14, 2022. Photo by Tsukasa Sano/Yomiuri via AFP.
We’re fast approaching opening day of the 2022 MLB season, so let’s dive into the American League Player Awards futures markets with our top AL MVP and Cy Young picks.
Shohei Ohtani hit just .190 and pitched all 1 2/3 innings in the truncated 2020 MLB season. Heading into 2021, he had almost no MVP buzz. However, a finally healthy Ohtani hit 46 home runs and stole 26 bases to go with a .965 OPS, and he threw like a true ace in 23 starts (130 1/3 innings) for a 9-2 record, 3, 18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 3.52 FIP.
Ohtani is a unique case as no other player is both an elite hitter and a pitcher, but his ability to show up further down the preseason odds list shouldn’t be ignored. Players can contribute to the MVP and Cy Young discussion regardless of their preseason expectations. For the latter, look no further than last year’s winner, Robbie Ray.
Here’s a look at the AL MVP and Cy Young Award races with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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AL Player Awards Odds: MVP
AL Player Awards Picks: MVP
Ohtani, DH/SP, Los Angeles Angels (+350)
Ohtani goes into the season as a favorite after putting it all together last season, proving his unique ability to add value as a hitter and pitcher. If he plays at a similar level, he will be back in the MVP mix.
Trout, OF, Angel (+400)
Trout has been the preseason favorite to win the AL MVP in each of the last nine seasons, but the streak has come to an end thanks to his teammate. Though Trout still bats like an MVP, his durability was an issue – he only played 36 games last season – and he’s not the base-stealer he once was. Still, he’s only 30 years old, and it’s too early to brush aside the best hitter of this generation.
Guerrero, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays (+400)
Guerrero was just fine in his first two seasons before completing a batting clinic last season. He hit 48 home runs and led the AL in percentage on base (.401) and slugging (.601). Vladdy finished second to Ohtani, and the 23-year-old will be a legitimate MVP contender for most of the next decade.
Judges, OF, New York Yankees (+1600)
Judge is a perennial MVP candidate if he can stay on the field. However, he has regularly struggled with injuries since becoming runner-up MVP in 2017 when he led the league in walks (123) and home runs (52).
Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (+1800)
This may be a year or two ahead of schedule, but don’t discount the potential of an elite talent who has been cutting .323/.382/.503 in his last 50 games as a 20-year-old rookie for the Rays. However, as a rookie, he only hit seven home runs in 70 games. He would need an energy boost to keep up with the likes of Ohtani, Trout, Guerrero and Judge.
value opportunity
Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Guardian (+2000)
According to ZiPS predictions, Ramirez will have the highest fWAR (5.9) in the American League. If he’s doing it for a Guardians team that’s languishing at the bottom of the standings, things could get tougher. But Ramirez’s name has been in trade rumors so a chance to play for a contender could still be out there, and Ramirez has been an elite offensive player for the past five seasons.
Tucker, OF, Houston Astros (+3000)
Tucker is a 25-year-old fielder who has cut .287/.349/.544 with 162-game averages from 32 home runs and 18 stolen bases over the past two seasons. Tucker has not yet produced at MVP level. However, if he continues to improve and the Astros top the AL West, Tucker could be one of those players who can attack from further down the list.
AL MVP story
While there were a few Mike Trout years when the preseason favorite won the award, there was a healthy dose of variety at the AL MVP. Since 2010, according to www.sportsoddshistory.com, there have been six winners with pre-season odds of +1200 or higher, with Josh Hamilton at +10000 in 2010. Therefore, it is likely that the greatest potential value will be found either looking down the board or looking away from the board entirely. Ohtani, Trout and Guerrero are worthy favorites but don’t offer much value at these prices, in part because there are at least two elite alternatives vying for the honors.
AL MVP Best Bets
Among the favorites, Guerrero Jr. is the most intriguing because last season shouldn’t be his peak at his age. That said, if further improvement is on the horizon and Guerrero could hit 55+ home runs and lead the league on base percentage, it’s the kind of production that could sway voters even if Ohtani delivers another amazing two-way season. Otherwise, look for value further down the board and even be prepared to pounce if a longshot starts placing big numbers.
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AL Player Awards Odds: Cy Young
AL Player Awards Selection: Cy Young
Cole, Yankees (+425)
While he’s not as dominant with the Yankees as he is with the Astros, Cole is a consistently overpowered starter who has as good a chance as anyone of winning the Cy Young. ZiP’s predictions clearly have Cole as the top pitcher in the American League for the 2022 season with a predicted fWAR of 5.8. Reason enough to consider him a favorite.
Beaver, Guardian (+700)
The 2020 AL Cy Young winner wasn’t as dominant last season and was limited to 16 starts. But over the past three seasons, Bieber has a 2.92 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 11.9 K/9. If he starts at least 30 games for the Guardians, Bieber will have Cy Young numbers.
Ray, Seattle Mariners (+900)
A shocking Cy Young winner last season, Ray was always capable of missing at-bats but also had an uneasy tendency to miss the hitting zone. He seemed to fix that problem and earned the award in 2022. Can he do it again? That’s a lot to ask considering Ray’s previously inconsistent performance, but he’s shown what’s possible.
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Giolito, Chicago White Sox (+1100)
After strong performances in 2019 and 2020, Giolito took a half step back last season. He was still very good, finishing 11th on the AL Cy Young poll, but he was better the previous two seasons. This track record places him second in the ZiPS AL pitcher prediction for the 2022 season.
value opportunity
Lynn, White Sox (+2000)
The 34-year-old, a workhorse starter for the White Sox, faded in the second half of last season and still finished third in the Cy Young poll, his third straight season with a finish in the top 6. He’s a no Favorite, but at this point The price has a chance to create value.
Garcia, Astros (+4000)
The 25-year-old opened last season in the Astros bullpen before being quickly accepted into the rotation and runner-up for American League Rookie of the Year after an 11-9 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 3.63 FIP became . Jumping straight into the Cy Young mix would be a big leap, but it’s worth paying attention to Garcia at this price point.
AL Cy Young Story
The American League Cy Young was the domain of Longshot winners. Over the past decade, these have included longshots like Dallas Keuchel, Rick Porcello and Blake Snell, who won at high odds preseason, as well as Robbie Ray last season and Corey Kluber’s first Cy Young in 2014, who came from pitchers who preseason didn’t even appear on the board.
AL Cy Young Best Bets
Much like the AL MVP race, there are many reasons for Gerrit Cole to be the favorite, but Cole offers little value at this price point. Based on the recent history of this award, the AL Cy Young winner could just as likely be a longshot or off-the-board selection. In addition to the few potential value plays I mentioned above, a healthy Noah Syndergaard (+4500) is worth considering, and second-year Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah could force his way into the discussion, although he doesn’t Listed among the top 30 is AL Cy Young Options on DraftKings.
Where to bet on AL Player Awards
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