A rough free-agency period in the NFL has cleared the landscape for the 2022 season, with a number of key moves drastically changing futures markets in the AFC.
We’re still waiting to see where Impact players will be drafted and what the schedule will be, but that hasn’t stopped oddsmakers from releasing the season’s overall wins for almost every team.
Overall wins of the NFL season
| TEAM | OVERALL WIN | ABOUT PRICE |
|---|---|---|
| bills | 11.5 | -150 |
| privateer | 11.5 | +108 |
| packer | 11 | -114 |
| bosses | 10.5 | -167 |
| cowboys | 10.5 | -104 |
| Aries | 10.5 | +101 |
| 49ers | 10 | -134 |
| Charger | 10 | -114 |
| Broncos | 10 | -114 |
| Bengal | 10 | +111 |
| cardinals | 9.5 | -162 |
| ravens | 9.5 | -143 |
| foal | 9.5 | -125 |
| Titans | 9.5 | -114 |
| viking | 9 | -114 |
| dolphins | 9 | +104 |
| patriots | 9 | +116 |
| Eagle | 8.5 | -134 |
| robber | 8.5 | -114 |
| saints | 8th | +116 |
| Steeler | 7.5 | -121 |
| commanders | 7.5 | +104 |
| Giants | 7 | -134 |
| bears | 7 | -104 |
| jaguars | 6.5 | -114 |
| Seahawks | 6 | -130 |
| Panthers | 6 | -114 |
| lions | 6 | -104 |
| hawks | 5.5 | +101 |
| nozzles | 5.5 | +111 |
| texan | 4.5 | -114 |
(The Browns are not listed due to uncertainty over a possible suspension of Deshaun Watson.)
It is asking many bettors to agree on an offer at a price of -110 in April 2022 that will not be paid out until January 2023. Still, there is much we can take away from these markets.
What winning amounts can mean
While I don’t want to risk all the variables that can change the evaluation of an overall win bet, I’m interested in seeing what the market thinks. It’s never too early to get a rudimentary starting point for team assessments.
The probability of winning changes depending on the situation when two equal teams play. The Dolphins, who (like last year) are playing a September game in New England, present different challenges than when they’re away in late December. What if Miami’s home game was actually a game played on neutral ground in London, England?
These total wins are based on a rough estimate of squads, knowledge of opponents, and little more. In a way, it’s the purest look at how odds makers view these teams. The big bettors have yet to get in touch as they will be waiting for more information and limit increases in the coming months.
How to create first evaluations from profit totals
The first step is to use this market to determine a team’s average win amount. For example, the Buffalo Bills sit at the top of the oddsboard. A price of -150 over 11.5 wins suggests that Josh Allen and co have a 60% chance of winning more than 11 games, meaning 12 wins is closer to a 50/50 offer.
In a 17-game season, 12 wins equals a 70.5% win rate. For now, we have to assume the Bills’ schedule is averagely difficult. Therefore, their overall win tally suggests the Bills have a 70.5% chance of beating a league-average team on a neutral field.
Let’s extrapolate that into odds for a single game against a league-average team – which would be 8.5 wins in a 17-game season (-110/-110). The Las Vegas Raiders are the next thing on the oddsboard. Converting 70.5% into a moneyline gives a fair price for Buffalo of -240. If these teams met on a neutral field, the odds could look like this:
| GAME | MONEY LINE | DISTRIBUTION |
|---|---|---|
| bills | -260 | -6.5 |
| robber | +220 | +6.5 |
The Houston Texans are moving all the way down and have a slightly better than 50/50 chance of topping 4.5 wins. That means they have a 26.5% chance of defeating the Raiders on a neutral field, on average for the league. Plugging that win probability into a moneyline calculator would yield a fair price of Texans +277.
This is how the odds for this game could look like after a sports betting account for the straddle:
| GAME | MONEY LINE | DISTRIBUTION |
|---|---|---|
| robber | -310 | -7.5 |
| texan | +260 | +7.5 |
Coached by Josh McDaniels and thrown by Derek Carr against Davante Adams, the new-look Raiders may be better than average. However, their overall wins will be hampered by one of the few static variables: six tough matchups in the AFC West.
You can do this exercise with any team (except Cleveland) by finding a 50/50 win total for each team and dividing by the number of games played (17). That’s how likely it is that this team will beat an average opponent. We look at the NFC to find out how to put together a decent team against a slightly underperforming roster.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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