The 2022 NFL schedule has been released, and while we’ve known each team’s opponents all along, we now know when to plan our day trips to see our favorite teams play.
Additionally, with the proliferation of sports betting, prizes are becoming increasingly available in the early stages of the off-season. So it’s time to see if the week 1 list has any value.
Buffalo Bills (spread +1) at Los Angeles Rams (52 overall)
This should be a great matchup between two teams that are firmly “all in” for the 2022 season. After the Bills’ two disappointing losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs in the last two seasons, markets see Buffalo (+650) as the league favorite to win the Super Bowl. At PFF we like them too – they’re 5.7 points better than the average team on a neutral field. The Rams are 4.0 points better, suggesting some value from the Bills as they seek to win their first Super Bowl title.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) at Washington Commanders (44.5)
For the second year in a row, Washington hosts an AFC team in Week 1. In their first game as Commanders, quarterback Carson Wentz must exorcise the demons that spring to life in his week 18 meltdown, which is ultimately the reason he is no longer the Indianapolis starting quarterback. We make Jacksonville 4.1 points worse than the average team on a neutral field, while Washington is 0.6 points worse.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) at Cincinnati Bengals (45)
The Bengals and Steelers were both surprise playoff teams in 2021, and Cincinnati drove that divergence all the way to the Super Bowl in Los Angeles, where they lost (but +4 covered) to the Rams. This year, the Steelers will start a quarterback other than Ben Roethlisberger on Opening Day for the first time since Big Ben was suspended earlier in the 2010 season — the last time the team reached the Super Bowl. PFF makes Cincinnati 1.9 points better than the average team on a neutral field, while Pittsburgh is 0.4 worse.
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at New York Jets (45.5)
The Ravens lost their last six games of the 2021 season, five of them by three points or fewer. Meanwhile, the Jets were one of the worst teams in the league last year but were loaded in the draft with Ahmad Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson II and Breece Hall. We make the Ravens 0.7 points better than the average team on a neutral field while the Jets are 2.9 points worse.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons (42)
The Saints, fresh from a year in which Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston combined 9-3 as starting quarterbacks, are playing their first game without head coach Sean Payton since the 2012 season when he was suspended for bountygate. In 2007, Joey Harrington was the last Falcons player to start on opening day as quarterback unnamed Matt Ryan. We make New Orleans 0.1 points worse than the average team on a neutral field, while the Falcons are 5.4 points worse.
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) at Houston Texans (44.5)
Matt Ryan is making his Indianapolis debut in a building the Colts have had a lot of success for – including the franchise’s last playoff win in January 2019. This is year 2 of what’s planned for Houston and we’re making the team by 4 .9 points worse than the average team on a neutral field while making the Colts 1.2 points better. While the Texans might have value here, you should be careful.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Detroit Lions (46.5)
The Eagles appeared a year early in 2021 as a playoff team, overcoming a total of six wins of the season to make the tournament the NFC’s seventh seed. The 2022 Lions are also lined up as a six-win team, and given how hard they played for Dan Campbell last season, I’m sure they’ll be a brave team from the jump. We make the Eagles 0.4 points better than the average team on a neutral field and Detroit 3.1 points worse.
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Chicago Bears (42.5)
The 49ers’ 2021 season turned with an away win over the Bears, a replay of the 1988 NFC Championship game (Joe Montana’s only playoff win of his career). In a matchup that will likely pit two of 2021’s five rookie quarterbacks against each other, we make the 49ers 2.8 points better than the average team on a neutral field while the Bears are 5.3 points worse.
New England Patriots (+2.5) at Miami Dolphins (45)
The first teasable line of the 2022 season is a rematch of a streak that swept the Dolphins over the Patriots in the playoffs last year without a playoff. We’re making both teams 0.4 points better than the average team on a neutral field, making the point spread essentially the assumption of home field advantage for the 2022 NFL season.
Las Vegas Raiders (+4) at Los Angeles Chargers (52)
This is a replay of what was not only the last game of the 2021 NFL season, but also the best game. The Raiders, fresh from their second playoff appearance since 2002, are currently the team least likely to win the AFC West, despite an offseason in which they acquired Davante Adams and Chandler Jones. Can Justin Herbert put the Chargers on track for the playoffs for the first time in his career? We make the Chargers 1.5 points better than the average team on a neutral field and the Raiders 0.2 points better.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings (49)
Early implications of NFC North begin the 2022 season in Minnesota, with both the Vikings and Packers looking to maintain the usual pecking order at the top of the division. Two years ago, this very scenario occurred when Green Bay easily covered the 1.5 point spread and rode to a 43-34 Statement win early in the season.
The opening total of 49 points suggests further shootout potential, but both teams may have taken a step back from their 2021 profiles offensively. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have an ideal work environment and Kirk Cousins needs it to do his best. Questions about which quarterback will emerge for these two teams make the best approach to what could be a choppy start to the season.
New York Giants (+6.5) at Tennessee Titans (44)
Though both teams appear to be moving in opposite directions in the futures markets, DraftKings makes the Tennessee Giants an underdog who nearly got a touchdown. It’s hard to find a bettor willing to support the Titans’ current state, and the Giants are quickly becoming one of the most popular teams in the futures market. If you value the closing line, then supporting the Giants seems like the only way to start the season.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals (53)
The Chiefs and Cardinals game, which had established itself as a top destination for fantasy enthusiasts, opened Week 1 with the highest total. Kansas City would be a 3.5-point favorite over Arizona on a neutral field, but with one of the least rowdy crowds in the League, the Cardinals see little benefit in playing this game at home. The Chiefs have often been maligned in the futures market, but still rank in the top 3 teams in PFF’s team rating systems. Expect the market to adjust expectations as the season nears, which will see this number surpass three by kick-off. Now looks like the perfect time to make that bet, with plenty of closing line value on the other side of the wait.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Dallas Cowboys (51)
The plus 2.5 spread provides a perfect teaser opportunity for Week 1 with Dallas as the home outsider. From a teaser perspective, the total isn’t ideal, but it still seems likely that this will end within a touchdown differential. Dallas is closer to a 3.5-point underdog based on PFF’s power rankings (assuming small home field advantage), which compares teams on a neutral field. Home field advantage plays a certain part in Dallas, but this is still a better teaser leg than a head-to-head game against the Cowboys.
Denver Broncos (-4) at Seattle Seahawks (41)
Russell Wilson’s revenge game started shorter than most expected, with a defensive struggle expected in the lowest Week 1 total. Pete Carroll may have finally landed the running back he needs to propel his team to the top, but that doesn’t make up for almost a touchdown discrepancy based on PFF’s power rankings. The only way this game should be Denver minus 4 is if Seattle home advantage is worth three points. That seems a bit heavy, even for kickoff night highlighted by Russell Wilson’s return. This could be Seattle’s Super Bowl for 2022, with key numbers staying lower.
Favorite Bets:
- Buffalo Bills +1 at the Los Angeles Rams
- Baltimore Ravens (-4) at New York Jets
- The New England Patriots (+8.5) at the Miami Dolphins teased the Dallas Cowboys (+8.5) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Detroit Lions (+4) vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Green Bay Packers (-1.5) with the Minnesota Vikings
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Denver Broncos (-4) at Seattle Seahawks
Comments are closed.