Donald Trump edged Joe Biden 40% to 38% in an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, a near-tie in a volatile electorate as the candidates wait in the wings.
The first USA TODAY poll since the two candidates actually clinched their presidential nominations found a sizable group of voters dissatisfied with their options and open to being persuaded – ingredients for a turbulent campaign ahead.
What could be good news for Biden is that more and more Americans are reporting an upturn in the economy, marking the rosiest assessment of the situation since the early days of his presidency.
“I think the public consciousness is starting to wake up to the reality that the economy is actually doing very, very well,” said Craig Richey, 62, a composer and university music instructor from Los Angeles who participated in the survey participated. A Democrat, he said the “noise machine on the other side” had drowned out Biden's “phenomenal” success in rebuilding an economy battered by the pandemic.
But Nick Garcia, 40, a mechanic from Cadiz, Kentucky, who plans to vote for former President Trump, blamed Biden for the downturn he is seeing. “I think it’s just hard to hold on,” he said of the economy in a follow-up phone interview. “When Trump was in office, I was doing really well.”
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The survey of 1,000 registered voters, conducted March 8-11 on landlines and cell phones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Don't bet on the farm yet: 25% could switch
Almost eight months have passed and the election has not yet been decided. One in four respondents said they could change their mind before November.
This unsettled sentiment cut across party lines, including 14% of Biden voters and 15% of Trump voters.
Most of those now supporting a third-party candidate said they would be willing to change their minds, including 75% of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters and 94% of Jill Stein supporters. That signals the potential erosion that independent candidates often face as Election Day approaches.
It also provides a great opportunity for each major party candidate to make his case to voters now hesitant or unwilling to support him, and to convince those voters that supporting the other would be dangerous or unwise.
A key swing group has been dubbed “double haters,” the 15% who dislike both Biden and Trump.
In the survey, 25% of them supported Trump, 18% supported Biden and 44% supported various third-party candidates. Kennedy attracted more of these voters than Biden, 21%.
Jana Pender, 67, a retired casino housekeeper from Detroit, is a registered Democrat but now considers herself an independent because she said neither party is doing enough to represent working people in the economy or address humanitarian needs the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
She won't vote for Trump and was 99% sure she won't support Biden. “Maybe I’ll reach out to someone like Jesse Jackson or Dennis Kucinich,” she said. “I know they're not running, but I'm so angry. I mean, really angry.”
Will an improving economy boost Biden?
At 29%, voters said inflation and the economy were the most important factors influencing their vote, followed by immigration (24%) and threats to democracy (23%). The only other issue that reached double digits was abortion at 10%.
Economic assessments have returned to the most optimistic level since Biden entered the White House.
In the 10 national USA TODAY/Suffolk polls conducted since then, the percentage saying an economic recovery is underway was 32% in the first poll and fell steadily to a low of 9 in July 2022 %. Since then, this figure has risen steadily, rising to 33% in the last survey.
That could push Biden, whose approval/disapproval rating was still decidedly tepid, to 41% to 55%. Still, it reflected an improvement from the last USA TODAY/Suffolk poll in late December of 39% to 58%.
He was now supported by 81% of his fellow Democrats, with the remainder distributed among third-party candidates; 5% were undecided. Among Biden's supporters, 54% said they were overwhelmingly voting for him; 41% voted overwhelmingly against Trump.
“The biggest thing for me is that he's not Trump,” said Matt Williams, 30, a middle and high school teacher from Sidney, New York, accusing the former president of trying to “undermine” democracy. But Williams said he wasn't “super excited” about his plan to vote for Biden. “I wish we had other popular Democratic candidates who were younger,” he said, mentioning Rep. Katie Porter of California and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Trump also faced some erosion within his party: 85% of Republicans supported him, 6% supported Kennedy and 2% were undecided. However, his voters were significantly more committed to their candidate: 74% said they were voting mostly for him, 22% said they were mostly voting against Biden.
Trump's approval of his work as president was higher than when he was in office. Now 49% agree and 47% disagree.
The economy “is going in a negative direction, and Biden has to be to blame for that,” said Gary Glover, 58, a crude oil shipper from Hobbs, New Mexico, who enthusiastically supports Trump. “You see it on your grocery bill and you see it in gas prices; You can see it in everything you buy…”
“I mean, I'm a barbecue guy and I used to buy a brisket – a good size, a 14-pound brisket – for fifty bucks. Now I pay $150 to $200 for the same brisket.”
The limited impact of speeches and lawsuits
Just a week after the Super Tuesday primaries eliminated any doubts about who the nominees would be, both Democrats and Republicans appeared primed for a rematch in 2020.
Among Democrats, 22% said they would be “pleased” about Biden’s nomination at the convention, and another 60% said they were “satisfied.” Only 13% responded negatively with “dissatisfied” or “anxious”.
Among Republicans, 43% said they felt “excited” about Trump’s nomination, and another 43% were “satisfied.” Twelve percent reacted negatively.
Looking back, Biden's State of the Union address last week had a mixed effect on the 56% of Americans who saw all or part of it: 33% said it made their view of Biden better, 28% worse.
Looking ahead, 44% said they plan to follow Trump's trial in New York, set to begin March 25, over his payment of hush money to a porn star before the 2016 election. But the impact a conviction could have on her election result appeared to be small.
84% of Trump voters said they would still vote for him if he were convicted in this or other cases. Of those who would change their vote, 8% would support a third-party candidate and fewer than 1% — in other words, just two of the 336 Trump voters — said they would switch to Biden.
“The charges are trumped up,” scoffed Richard Krasnodemski, 80, a retired autoworker from Allen Park, Michigan, who said a conviction would not change his vote for Trump. “I understand that they want to break him, force him to hire a million lawyers…
“These are the Democrats; this is her big thing now; That’s the only thing they have to do,” he said. “They cannot promise what they will do if elected. All you can say is, 'Look at everything he's done. He was indicted four times.'”
Sarah Sabornie, a retired nurse from Cary, North Carolina, declared her support for “Joseph Robinette Biden,” mentioning his full name and emphasizing that there is a lot at stake in the election.
Trump “will undermine justice” if he wins, she warned. “It is our democracy. You know, I'm 71. I've lived in a democracy for 71 years. I am absolutely certain that she will be completely blown to pieces.”
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