BERLIN, Jan 25 (Reuters) – The international business community expects a challenging 2023, marked by geopolitical tensions, high inflation and the energy crisis, according to the Eurochambres global economic survey released on Wednesday. The Eurochambres report, based on responses from trade and trade organizations representing around 70% of global GDP, highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions and instability as the top challenges facing the global economy this year. Participants from the United States and the United Kingdom see rising inflation, fueled by rising food and energy prices, as one of the main challenges, while energy security in the European Union is of particular concern.
Respondents were asked about their expectations for real GDP growth in their country or region for 2023, which were compared to International Monetary Fund (IMF) benchmark forecasts.
US and Chinese participants have similar estimates of real GDP growth as the IMF, while the UK Chamber of Commerce is forecasting a 1.3% contraction in the economy, much more pessimistic than the 0.3% growth forecast by the IMF.
In the euro zone, the forecasts are largely in line with those of the IMF. However, there are significant differences between countries. The Spanish Chamber of Commerce and Italian Chambers of Commerce Association Unioncamere are optimistic about their countries’ growth compared to IMF forecasts, while the German Association of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) forecast a stronger slowdown in growth in Germany than the IMF.
However, the DIHK forecast of a 3.0% y/y contraction in GDP in 2023 dates from the autumn and the economic environment has brightened significantly in recent months, with some economists now saying that the eurozone’s largest economy is a could avoid recession.
The Eurochambres Global Business Survey 2023 was conducted in November and December 2022. (Report by Christian Kraemer and Maria Martinez; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)