The long-awaited recession in the US could still be lurking somewhere out there. But right now the economy is heading into 2024 in better shape than even optimists expected just six months ago. Third-quarter growth exceeded expectations, jobs remain plentiful, consumers are still spending and home prices have remained stable. Signals from the Federal Reserve that it may have ended its aggressive rate hike cycle have further boosted hopes of a soft landing.
Wall Street economists rely on a timeless tale to summarize the current outlook: not too hot and not too cold. “I feel like I’m in the middle of a Goldilocks story,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets LLC, wrote in a recent note. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief US economist, Michael Feroli, also acknowledged the name of the children’s classic in a report, saying: “Right now it looks like Goldilocks.” Dario Perkins, managing director of TS Lombard, published on X, formerly Twitter , an animation of the little intruder slurping her porridge.
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