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Soft landing? hard landing? no landing? What’s next for the economy? : Planet Money : NPR

LILLIAN SUWANRUMPHA/AFP via Getty Images

Photo taken on February 12, 2019 shows a fortune teller posing with tarot cards at a temple in Bangkok.  (LILLIAN SUWANRUMPHA/AFP via Getty Images)

LILLIAN SUWANRUMPHA/AFP via Getty Images

Predicting the future of the economy is always a tricky business. This is especially true after more than three years of pandemic-related economic madness. Nobody knows exactly what will happen next.

Will the Fed manage to bring about a soft landing and bring down inflation without triggering a recession or a large spike in unemployment? Or will there be a hard landing in the end, with inflation coming down, albeit at the expense of the country’s economic health? Or, a third possibility: will the Fed fail to bring inflation down at all?

In today’s program, three economic experts explain what they look for when trying to make predictions about what might be next for the US economy. And how these indicators lead them to very different conclusions. We will also consult a tarot card reader… to see if their interpretation of the future can help us determine which outcome is the most likely.

What drove inflation?  Economists' thinking may have changed

This episode was hosted by Keith Romer, Sarah Gonzalez and Jeff Guo. It was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler and edited by Jess Jiang. It was developed by Kwesi Lee with the help of Maggie Luthar and fact checked by Sierra Juarez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.

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Music: Universal Production Music – “Hammond Soul”, “Sorry I Keep You”, “Don’t Cross the Line”, “Swinging Along” and “Sniffin’ Glue”

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