Abuja, Nigeria – Adeola Ehi had been looking forward to bringing her two-year-old daughter home for Christmas to meet her grandparents for the first time. But increased household expenses, including an unexpected rent increase, caused the 43-year-old communications consultant to postpone the planned trip.
In Nigeria, where more than half of the 200 million people live on less than $2 a day, even the smallest price increase weighs heavily on household income. At least 133 million people suffer from “multidimensional poverty,” according to the National Bureau of Statistics, which says citizens spend about half their income on food and another 20 percent on transportation.
The strain has become even more apparent during the holiday season as families limit spending, including traditional travel to spend time with extended families.
“It’s safe to say that Christmas has lost its joy this year,” said Ehi from Abuja, the country’s capital. “There’s just too much going on at once. Grocery prices are rising, landlords are raising rents, and even transportation costs are skyrocketing. So what’s happening is we’re being forced to cut spending so much that we can’t even afford to buy Christmas presents for our kids,” she said.
As many Nigerian families face soaring prices for rice, the key ingredient used to prepare the most popular Christmas meal in Africa’s most populous country, the festive season seems to have lost its cheer.
“My food budget is now twice as high”
With unprecedented flooding this year that washed away half a million hectares of farmland in parts of Nigeria, the average cost of preparing a pot of Jollof rice has increased by 23.8 percent compared to last year, according to Lagos-based risk consultancy SBM Intelligence, which publishes the Jollof Index. Coupled with an earlier ban on rice imports and dollar shortages, a bag of rice now sells for 55,000 naira, nearly double the country’s minimum wage.
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in its 10th month, the aftermath of the war is putting Nigeria under increasing pressure as shortages of energy resources and raw materials and a worsening foreign exchange crunch have meant food budgets have more than doubled.
A loaf of bread that sold for 650 naira 10 months ago now costs 1,000 naira, while the price of eggs per box has increased from 2,200 naira to 3,000 naira.
“My food budget is double that now. I spend almost 150,000 naira on food every month and even then I don’t buy everything,” said Ehi, whose family of six survive on her and her husband’s salary.
‘It’s a nightmare’
Soaring transportation costs due to a nearly year-long fuel shortage also mean many people won’t be heading home for the celebrations. Average inner-city and inter-city fares have increased by 45 percent or more, according to the national statistics agency. At the same time, a 5kg refill of cooking gas, used by most middle-income households, is up 37 percent over the same period.
“I’m sad that I won’t be seeing my family for Christmas this year, but it is,” said Precious Jedidiah, a teacher, who said it was the first time she wasn’t home for the celebrations. “I’d rather send half the fare home than waste it,” she said.
Fuel shortages, the worst since outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari took office in 2015, have also prompted people to ditch car travel this festive season. That and the fear of being kidnapped along the streets, according to the Intercity drivers.
“It’s a nightmare,” said Baba Oyo, a professional driver at Jabi Motor Park in Abuja. “We haven’t seen voter turnout as low as this year for a long time. People are already afraid to travel because of the bad roads and kidnappings, and now when you add this increase in transport, they choose to stay and I don’t blame them at all,” he said.
While food, energy and transport prices peak during the holiday season due to rising seasonal demand, higher inflation could lead to a slowdown in Nigeria’s economy growth in the fourth quarter, said Ikemesit Effiong, head of research at SBM Intelligence Lagos.
“Rising fuel costs, heightened security, muted food security from flooding at the start of the fourth quarter and flat wage growth mean Nigeria’s burst of economic growth during the holiday season this year would be much smaller than usual. While negative growth is unlikely this year, aggregate GDP [gross domestic product] will lag well behind the typical Q4 trends we’ve seen over the last few years,” he said.
Buhari came to power in 2015 with a promise to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty, but living conditions have deteriorated since he took office.
“Because of this excruciating inflation, we are no longer eating what we want, but what is available. I hope things will get better soon because I don’t know how much longer we can live like this,” Ehi said.
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