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The economy is now in ruins
BREAKING: The mood has changed.
The economy has been going well for some time now – low unemployment, high growth, falling inflation. Yet the Bureau of Labor Sentiments, chaired by Catherine Rampell, has reported in one sentiment check after another that Americans simply aren't feeling it.
Until now. “Optimism is spreading across the country,” writes Catherine.
Consumer confidence is rising and the share of Americans who believe we are in a recession (which we are not!) has fallen. Catherine lists some tangibles that she thinks we can recognize, including higher prices on the stock market and lower prices at the pump.
Jennifer Rubin believes the turnaround has a lot to do with the media improving after painting a bleak economic picture for far longer than warranted. She writes: “One has to ask oneself whether the gap in perception is due to too negative reporting.”
Regardless, Catherine and Jen agree: With consumers, reporters and reality now all on the same page, President Biden could soon be in a better electoral position.
The economy is almost always the most important issue for voters, Jen emphasizes, and there are still months before a new narrative emerges.
And even if the economy doesn't “suddenly become a winning issue for the incumbent,” Catherine writes, “it may stop being an albatross around his neck.”
That will be a boon for Democrats, who at this point are almost certainly sticking with Biden no matter what bird decorations he wears — a failure for which they can only blame themselves, writes Jim Geraghty. The Democratic National Committee, he says, has made the presidential primary “challenger-proof.”
Just look at New Hampshire tonight: If a Democratic primary falls through the cracks but the DNC fails to allocate appropriate delegates, does that even make a sound? No sensible challenger would take on Biden in the tailored list of states where the committee is strong.
Chaser: The New Hampshire Republican primary will be significant, perhaps enormously significant. Follow our collection of election analysts live tonight.
From China analyst Richard Fontaine's warning that assumptions about China's inexorable decline are dangerous and unfounded.
Citing more than a handful of top China watchers, Fontaine worries about their growing consensus that the world has reached (or already passed) the “peak of China.”
Not like that, he says. The country's economy is still huge, its trade performance is still dominant, and its technical and military capabilities are still impressive. There could be a decline, but that is not a guarantee.
That's why, writes Fontaine, this story is so frightening. When it comes to “outlining the assumptions on which U.S. policy is based,” he warns, “America will not be able to meet the challenge of China.”
Have you observed Dry January, where participants abstain from alcohol for a month? I came to the right place for you! Except my friend's birthday party. And après toddies on the ski trip last week. And the beer on the couch with season 3 of “Slow Horses.”
Okay, maybe my January was more wet than dry. But if you've managed to abstain, writes Leana Wen, your body will thank you. Temperance benefits include better sleep, weight loss, and a reduction in blood pressure and liver inflammation.
Your mind might thank you too. Leana writes that the real benefit of a month without alcohol is that it allows us to rethink our relationship with it: Why do we drink? Are we drinking in a healthy way?
And good news: Leana writes that this introspection is just as possible for those of us whose month gets a little damp.
Uh, chasers: If you feel like you're somewhere in the 18th week of January, find compassion in author and editor Benjamin Dreyer's lament about this longest month as of 2023. (As always, linguistic surprises included.)
- Researchers Phillip Levine and Sarah Reber explain the major hurdle to rigged college admissions policies by using class rather than race.
- An alleged love affair with the senior public prosecutor? What on earth, asks Ruth Marcus, was Fani Willis thinking?
- The nation is rid of Ron DeSantis for now. If only Florida were that lucky, writes Gene Robinson.
It's a farewell. It's a haiku. It's…the Bye-Ku.
Do you have your own new haiku? Email it to me along with any questions/comments/unclarities. See you in the morning!
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