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What we call “the economy” is an incredibly complicated thing that can’t really be captured in a simple judgment of “good” or “bad.” Nevertheless, we can quantify certain characteristics such as inflation and unemployment. We also know that millions of Americans are misinformed about at least some of these measures — and the political ramifications could be severe.
It’s been apparent for months that a significant number of Americans mistakenly think the country either lost jobs or didn’t create more than normal over the past year. Indeed, for 11 consecutive months, more than 400,000 jobs per month were added and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6 percent.
Now, a poll by Democratic firm Navigator Research offers new insight into why this might be happening. In short, more people say they’ve heard of inflation than jobs, and as a result only a minority believe any jobs were created at all over the past year.
The poll found that 77 percent of registered voters said they had heard a lot or some about the latest numbers showing high inflation. Yet only 55 percent said they had heard a lot or some about recent good job creation numbers.
In addition, when asked, only 30 percent of respondents said more jobs were created than lost in the past year, compared to 29 percent who thought jobs were lost (the rest thought nothing had changed or said he wouldn’t know). . This is just a poll, but Democratic polls have consistently shown similar results.
Clearly there is a lot of partisanship at play: Republicans are more likely to say jobs have been lost under President Biden and paint the economy the gloomiest they can. But even so, there are still large numbers of independents, and even some Democrats, who don’t see what’s good about the economy.
How do we explain this, and is it fixable for Democrats? We put the question to Democratic pollsters.
Sean McElwee, co-founder of progressive firm Data for Progress, believes voter sentiment toward the economy is intertwined with perceptions of what Congressional Democrats are actually doing about it.
“The perception of the economy depends a lot on whether or not Democrats are seen passing legislation,” McElwee told us. “Right now we’re more fighting each other than working on solutions.”
McElwee says the problem is “excellently solvable” if inflation comes down at least somewhat and Democrats “pass legislation to bring back America’s supply chains and lower prescription drug costs.”
Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson believes the problem is related to voters’ accumulation of experience from two years of pandemic and economic crises, one under Donald Trump and the other under Biden.
“Given what the country has been through, everyone lives on jitters and worries about what’s around the corner,” Ferguson said. “No one is voting on a specific fact. The feeling that we humans need is recovery and stability.”
As a result, Ferguson said, Democrats need to be more aggressive in communicating with the public about the general trajectory of American life through the pandemic to the present.
“It puts the person in front of the camera who lost their job under Trump and has a job under Biden,” Ferguson said. “It tells the story of a family who two years ago worried about not being able to pay their bills and now say things are still not easy but they have some breathing room.”
Some of these thoughts are reflected in a new multimillion-dollar advertising campaign launched by pro-democracy group American Bridge 21st Century. The ads feature Americans expressing ongoing concerns about inflation but expressing awareness that jobs are being created under Biden and that he is working on plans to restore manufacturing jobs.
It is likely that nothing will suffice. So the Democrats are under pressure in the midterm elections – the president’s party almost always loses seats, in good times and bad. And if there is another Covid resurgence (or if inflation continues), it’s hard to imagine perceptions of the economy improving anytime soon.
But things will undoubtedly get worse for Democrats if people continue to hear far more about economic troubles than they do about economic progress. And there the Democrats have at least some capacity to inform voters. Or so you think.
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