Opinion: California’s economy will suffer as a quick resolution to the Hollywood writers’ strike is unlikely
Workers and supporters of the Writers Guild of America protest at a picket line outside Paramount Studios in May. REUTERS/Aude Guerrucci
Two shots, two different approaches.
In March, the union representing caregivers in the Los Angeles Unified School District quit its job, leading to the closure of one of the country’s largest school systems. Six weeks later, the Writers Guild of America launched its strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, bringing television and film production to a standstill.
The school staff were away for three days. During this time, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass summoned representatives from both sides to City Hall and pushed negotiations forward. On March 23, Bass announced that both sides had reached an agreement. Schools reopened the next day.
When the writers announced their strike in early May, Bass issued a two-sentence statement reiterating the importance of the entertainment industry to Los Angeles and “calling on all sides to come together in an agreement that will protect our signature industry and the families that they operate protects.” Since then, the two sides have not even met, let alone reached an agreement.
The difference in citizen response isn’t that one hit matters to Los Angeles and one doesn’t. Both affect core constituencies and the broader economy. But the way they perform says something about their place in the city’s political and cultural landscape.
If school staff leave – and teachers join in – schools will be closed. Parents no longer have a place to send their children. And it’s not a snow day. There is no hot chocolate and tobogganing. Parents demand quick action. Mayors – even if they are not in charge of the schools – are responding to pressure from concerned parents and calling for action.
When writers strike, the impact is global but incremental. The late-night comedy shows are getting somber. The production of films and television shows is discontinued. To a Stephen Colbert fan anywhere in the world, it’s obvious that something is wrong.
However, the local effects are harder to see, at least at first glance. Yes, thousands of writers are laying down their pen, but the profound impact of their strike is cumulative rather than instantaneous. It’s the sets that are closing, the unemployed actors, the caterers, carpenters and dry cleaners whose livelihoods are slowly drying up.
And further down the stockbrokers, travel agents, hotel workers and real estate agents and so on and so forth. These people don’t work for the entertainment industry and they don’t feel it yet, but when their savings run out and income falls, they will.
And it’s gonna hit hard. During the last writers’ strike from November 2007 to February 2008, Los Angeles suffered more than $2 billion in lost production, according to economists’ estimates. A study by the Milken Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, calculated a drop of more than $800 million in retail sales alone. About 38,000 jobs were lost – most of them outside the entertainment industry.
This time, the impact is likely to be even greater, say economists and others closely following events.
“This is a huge, huge problem,” said Kevin Klowden, chief global strategist at the Milken Institute. The latest strike helped plunge California into a recession before the rest of the country followed, he added, and it will be longer and more damaging.
“It could affect 300,000 workers,” said Todd Holmes, associate professor of entertainment media management at Cal State Northridge. Holmes, who predicted more than $3 billion in overall economic damage, added: “It’s going to be a long fight.”
Because both sides have real reason to be afraid and to resist. Producers still don’t see a long-term revenue model for the company, and the writers are painfully aware that they are being pushed out of sustainable jobs into piecework.
And yet the strike saunters through LA. The pickets are sparsely populated and more festive than angry. In striking contrast to the school strike, mainstream media coverage is relatively poor.
In part, it’s a media problem: the Los Angeles media isn’t what it was in 2008. But the dynamics of the strike are also contributing, as are changes in the entertainment industry.
Start with the geography of the industry. Many authors are based in Los Angeles, but the productions affected by the strike are often far away – for example in New York, Atlanta or Canada. This influences the way politicians react. It’s hard to get the Los Angeles Mayor’s attention when dry cleaners are closing in Atlanta.
And there’s the huge problem of complexity that keeps outsiders from getting involved. The school workers’ strike, of course, had its complexities – as do all protracted labor disputes. But there are really puzzling issues at play with the writers’ strike.
The focus is on the effects of technology and new distribution models for entertainment. Apple and Amazon were not even involved in the last strike, Klowden noted. Now they are at the center of this bitter debate about future content gains.
That’s because the authors understandably fear they’ll be lost in the transition as streaming services become the predominant way to access programming. Streaming revenue is difficult to quantify, while the writing impact has been rapid (and accelerated by COVID).
Shows that once a group of writers were hired to produce 24 or 25 episodes, are now hired for eight or 10 episodes and writers are no longer guaranteed to be employed for the entire run of a series. Writing, which once rewarded talent and hard work with job security, now often only opens the door to one-off deals, leaving many writers unable to count on making a living.
Added to this is the immense uncertainty associated with the increasing use of generative artificial intelligence. Will studios use AI to draft scripts and then try to reduce writers to “punch-up” work? It’s easy – and terrifying – to imagine, but it’s harder today to articulate contract language that will ensure human participation in screenwriting 10 years from now. Or five. Or one.
The combination of complexity, prevalence and delayed impact is enough to keep politicians out of the mix. It can also mean that this strike lasts for a very long time.
But if that dynamic thwarts the strikers’ efforts to create urgency, they at least have the benefit of, well, being writers.
That was made clear by a picket sign last week. Beneath the shield’s telltale red-and-black banner, the enterprising author expressed his confidence in the cause: “Paulina Porizkova is dating a writer,” he wrote. “We can do anything!”
Try to get the AI to think this up.
Jim Newton is a veteran journalist, bestselling author, and teacher. He was a reporter, editor, bureau chief, and columnist for the Los Angeles Times for 25 years, covering government and politics. He teaches at UCLA and founded Blueprint magazine. The author wrote this for CalMatters, a public interest journalism company that explains how the California Capitol works and why it matters.
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