Houston is seeing record job growth despite an uncertain economy

Data: Texas Workforce Commission; Diagram: Will Chase/Axios

Houston posted record job growth in the first six months of this year, even surpassing the numbers recorded during the oil boom years of the early 1980s and 2010s.

Why it matters: There has been much talk and fear about the looming recession, and while the rise in inflation and interest rates is very real, employment numbers show that Houston’s local economy is still growing, according to Patrick Jankowski, senior vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership.

Yes but: Other economic indicators pointed to slow growth, Jankowski said.

Details: Houston added 85,000 jobs in the first half of this year.

• Most sectors, including restaurants, arts, finance and healthcare, have matched or surpassed their pre-pandemic employment numbers.
• The energy, manufacturing, hotel, real estate and construction sectors are still catching up.

Take fast: Houston has rebounded despite struggles in the energy sector, suggesting the city is not as dependent on oil and gas as it used to be.

Between the lines: Some of the job growth can be attributed to the recovery from the pandemic. However, according to Jankowski, the job expansion also reflects how Houston’s exports are growing, warehousing and distribution centers are expanding and people are still moving to the city.

• “When people come here, they need a house or an apartment, or they need to buy groceries or buy furniture,” Jankowski said. “When they come here, they are new workers. That’s one of the reasons the workforce has increased, while many other subways aren’t benefiting from a growing workforce.”

Remarkable: Most of the recent mass layoffs have taken place at the national level and have been concentrated in the technology and digital currency sectors. Jankowski says these job cuts are not a sign of a local slowdown and have almost no impact on Houston.

What we observe: Growth has slowed but should continue for now.

• “We have enough momentum to carry us through the end of the year,” said Jankowski. “There is no danger that we are thinking of a recession in 2022. I have less clarity for 2023.”