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Economy and security could decide the close runoff election in Liberia

Story highlights

  • 56% of Liberians feel their standard of living is deteriorating
  • 74% say they didn’t have enough money for food last year
  • 32% felt safe walking alone at night in 2022, one of the lowest levels in the world

WASHINGTON, DC – After a closely contested national election on October 10 in which the two leading candidates were separated by less than a percentage point of the vote, Liberians will go to the polls again on Tuesday to elect their next president. The winner will likely be the one Liberians believe offers the best chance of combating a variety of problems, including poverty, corruption and security concerns.

Short Summary: Incumbent President George Weah, who received 43.83% of the vote in the last election, rose to fame as an international soccer star, playing for clubs such as AC Milan and Chelsea. He faces former Vice President Joseph Boakai, who received 43.44% of the vote in the first round. The two have met before, with Weah defeating Boakai in the 2017 presidential election.

Standard of living: poor and getting worse

Just over a third of Liberians (37%) are satisfied with their standard of living in 2023, up from 41% in 2018, when Weah took office. Furthermore, only 43% of respondents believe their standard of living is improving, while 56% believe it is deteriorating.

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Material shortages and poverty have plagued Liberia for decades, with food and shelter being the main concerns. Nearly three in four Liberians (74%) say there were times in the past 12 months when they did not have enough money for food, while 60% struggled to afford housing.

These concerns have likely led many Liberians to consider life outside the country. The latest Gallup data shows that 76% of Liberians say they would permanently move to another country if given the opportunity. This is one of the highest levels Gallup has recorded worldwide since 2007.

Liberia is one of the least safe countries in the world

Liberia, which has experienced two civil wars since 1989, continues to suffer from insecurity as residents consider the country to be unsafe for various reasons. Only a third of Liberians (32%) felt safe walking alone at night in 2022, well below the sub-Saharan Africa median of 51% and one of the lowest in the world. Many Liberians also said they had money or property stolen from them in the past year (53%), or were attacked or mugged (29%). Illegal drug use and trafficking have also plagued the country in recent years. A UNFPA report from Liberia estimates that 20% of youth use narcotics.

Due to these factors, Liberia ranks at the bottom of Gallup’s 2022 Law and Order Index with a score of 49, while the global score was 83. Insecurity in local policing depressed the country’s value, with Liberians having far less trust in their local police force (45%) than the average of 60% across sub-Saharan Africa.

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The most recent data collected by Gallup this year shows that these unsafe conditions continue. Trust in local police has fallen even further, from 45% to 42%, while the proportion of reported assaults has remained largely the same over the past year, moving from 29% to 28%. Liberians’ reports of feeling unsafe while traveling alone have also remained almost unchanged, indicating that insecurity continues to rise across the country.

A slim majority agrees with Weah, but a downward trend could spell trouble

This election will serve as a referendum on Weah’s leadership since 2018, which was a turbulent time for Liberia. After Weah enjoyed high approval ratings for his work during the honeymoon period immediately after taking office, approval has declined. In the most recent Gallup poll, conducted just before the October election, 54% approved of his job performance, up from 65% in 2022.

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Weah’s government has faced corruption allegations throughout his term, including the imposition of US sanctions on his chief of staff and other officials over reports of misappropriation of state assets and bribery. Most Liberians (81%) believe corruption is widespread throughout the government. However, this figure is broadly consistent with the average since 2007, suggesting that the problem is far more entrenched in government than just Weah’s administration.

Implications

Although Liberia made great strides in stability following the end of the country’s second civil war in 2003, it faced difficulties in securing improved material standards across the country. Poverty, corruption, poor transport and food shortages are widespread throughout the population and are likely to continue into the foreseeable future. COVID-19 strained an already fragile health system that was still recovering from the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak that killed 4,810 people in the country, including 8% of the country’s doctors, nurses and midwives.

Weah took office in 2018 promising to fight corruption and transform the economy – areas where the country has so far failed. Weah has touted his successes in building new roads in rural areas but argues he needs more time to make major progress due to setbacks from COVID-19.

However, Boakai claims that Weah worsened Liberia’s situation by campaigning under the slogan “rescue” and imploring people to join his rescue team to save the country. The razor-thin results of the first election suggest the country remains deeply divided over which candidate offers the best chance of improving the lives of Liberians.

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For full methodology and specific survey data, see Gallup’s country data set details.

Learn more about how the Gallup World Poll works.

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