Economy and history can keep Democrats from retaining control of the House of Representatives

(CN) – Despite recent legislative victories for President Joe Biden’s agenda, Democrats still have to climb steep adversity and historic precedent to avoid a Congressional changing of the guard in November.

Concerns about rising gas prices, dwindling affordable housing and a possible recession are key issues Democrats must get out of voters’ minds to stay in power next November. According to a recent ABC/Ipsos poll, just 37% of voters approve of the way Biden is handling the economic recovery.

David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University, says the incumbent presidents’ parties consistently performed poorly during the half-term.

“In general, we know that midterm elections are not good for the incumbent president’s party because the average loss of seats in the House of Representatives is 26,” he said. “Given Biden’s low approval rating, the odds are against Democrats retaining the House, especially given the number of retirements.”

Biden’s approval rating rose to 40% this week, its highest in two months.

Since the end of World War II, only one president has gained party power during a midterm. In 2002, President George W. Bush and the Republican Party won eight seats, solidifying the GOP majority after the September 11 terrorist attacks.

While the Democrats’ recent windfalls such as passing anti-inflation legislation, strong employment indicators and the neutralization of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri may be big wins for the party, they don’t change the paradigm like 9/11 did.

“Even though Biden’s approval ratings are better now than they were a few weeks ago and he’s had a string of wins, a lot of that is being thought about in Washington, DC,” Schultz said. “The public still gets mad at the economy every time they gas up or buy groceries, and most Americans think the country is moving in the wrong direction. Additionally, Biden’s outreach and imaging isn’t good and he hasn’t done enough to reverse the economic perception or the perception of him for most voters.”

Michael J. Malbin, a political science professor at the University of Albany, says recent victories will not make up for nearly two years of uncertainty.

“Voters don’t base their decisions on specific laws or foreign policy measures,” he said. “Rather, these government policies contribute to longer-term hiring, which in turn contributes to overall ratings and, crucially, to voting intent.”

A wildcard could be voter turnout in swing states where abortion rights initiatives exist, following the recent US Supreme Court decision Roe v. Wade to retire.

“Abortion is already on the ballot in California, Montana and Vermont and could be on the ballot in Colorado and Michigan,” Malbin said. “This could help boost Democratic turnout, particularly in Colorado and Michigan.”

In Colorado, an 8th congressional district open house seat in 2020 tipped slightly toward Biden and is now hotly contested, according to recent polls. For Michigan, three seats in the House of Representatives were shared almost across the board in the race for the presidency. Two districts recorded a voter difference of less than 1%.

Kansas recently saw a large turnout, with a majority of voters opposing changing the state’s constitution to remove protections for abortion rights.

“Kansas excites people, but abortion was the only issue there,” Schultz said. “Yes, it increased voter turnout, but the GOP will also be motivated to vote in November and it’s still a question mark over whether in a race with business.” [and] Abortion will motivate enough voters to make a difference. If it gets college-educated women voting alongside young voters, it can make a difference in some crucial races.”

David Wells, a professor of political science and leadership at Arizona State University, says it will be difficult for Democrats to weather the adversity because voters often follow the prevailing winds.

“In many cases, it’s more about the party than the people. Many voters don’t even know who their congressman is. They are concerned about the problems with the wallet, more so about inflation,” he said. “I think you know it’s difficult, a lot of things aren’t going to change anytime soon.

Without a quick economic turnaround, the path for House Democrats is unclear. Wells believes the outlook is generally brighter in the Senate, where voters generally know the incumbent and may be inclined to make a conscious decision against a controversial Trump-backed candidate.

“Democrats have a much better position in the Senate, I think they’re actually going to take Senate seats,” he said. “Particularly given the influence of Donald Trump winning the primary, it definitely looks to me like the Democrats are in a much better position in that regard.”

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