Despite recovery, San Diego’s economy is still ‘fragile’

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Just after 10 a.m. on a recent Tuesday, staff at Kearny Mesa’s tahini restaurant were busy preparing the lunchtime rush for its chicken and steak shawarma.

“It pays homage to our culture and the places our families hail from, while doing so in a way that can be easily visited by the American public,” said restaurant co-founder Osama Shabaik.

Today, Shabaik is focused on opening a coffee shop next door and a new location on the UC San Diego campus later this year.

But in March 2020, he wasn’t thinking about expansion. Instead survive. At the time, hundreds of thousands of San Diego workers lost their jobs seemingly overnight after the coronavirus stay-at-home orders took effect.

“We were definitely as shocked as everyone else when the lockdowns were put in place,” Shabaik said. “We’ve seen sales really plummet overnight.”

The outbreak of the coronavirus devastated San Diego’s then-healthy economy. Government stimulus loans to businesses, checks to families, and rising unemployment kept San Diego afloat.

These are gone now that the economy has reopened.

But although the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.2 percent from a peak of 15.9 percent, the situation is not quite stable.

“The economy is healthy but vulnerable because if employers can’t find enough workers to meet their needs, they can’t stay open 24 hours a day,” said Peter Callstrom, CEO of the San Diego Workforce Partnership.

Callstrom found that companies in the service sector struggled to find workers. Many have retrained for other areas or have moved away from San Diego. Overall, San Diego County employment is about 5 percent below pre-pandemic levels. But that gap widens to 15 percent for the leisure and hospitality sectors.

This, coupled with inflation at a 40-year high, is driving up costs for everyone.

Shabaik said it created something of billing for restaurants. As Tahini returns to full hours, despite its family background and commitment to pay above minimum wage, it has had to raise prices and has several job openings.