Image courtesy of Tang Tengfei/Global Times
China is optimizing response to COVID-19 and making the transition to a controlled phase-out of bulk nucleic acid testing, a crucial step in returning to normal work and life. The timing of the policy change has been well calculated and is now seen as opportune.
The whole world is watching closely how the transition will unfold. The country’s huge economy is expected to quickly recover from the adverse impact of the epidemic early next year and regain its steady growth momentum seen before 2020.
Since the state broadcaster CCTV announced on December 7th a statement from the State Council presenting the 10 new guidelines that streamline epidemic prevention measures, in particular allowing home quarantine for infected cases and close contacts and the health QR code to largely abolish entering office buildings and public places, the optimization will greatly stimulate the recovery of China’s domestic consumption
Now the broader service sector – including a drink in a pub, dining with friends at a restaurant, going to the cinema to see a film, and taking a flight or bullet train to travel and sightsee – is being reactivated. As services revive, more people’s incomes will rise, leading to a recovery in other economic segments such as imports and exports and housing construction.
Many renowned international investment banks are optimistic about the prospects for China’s economy in 2023. Goldman Sachs raised its estimate of economic growth to 5.2 percent, Morgan Stanley revised its forecast to 5.4 percent and Societe Generale increased its estimate to 5.3 percent. Excluding the current tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world, their estimates for next year’s Chinese growth could be even higher.
This country’s extraordinary patience in waiting out the generational mutations of COVID-19 until they become milder and less deadly has paid off as tens of thousands of precious lives have been saved in China. If China had opted to “live” with the virus from the start, as the US did in 2020, many Chinese might have died since China’s population is four times that of the US, which has theirs Reported COVID deaths have now exceeded 1.1 million.
There is one premise for China’s change in antivirus policy, which is that the current Omicron variant is much weaker than previous strains that emerged in 2020 and 2021, like Alfa and Delta, which are deadlier. Although a small proportion of older Chinese could still become seriously ill, the majority of Chinese are now confident in their ability to weather a rising wave of infections.
Just a few weeks ago, contracting COVID-19 meant being quarantined and locking down the infected patient’s entire residence. Now, with the optimization of anti-epidemic measures, the country is expected to return to normal business operations in February or March.
Meanwhile, Chinese politicians have signaled every effort
the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference to ensure a general improvement in economic processes in 2023. A new set of pro-growth fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be issued in the near future. Basic infrastructure projects, real estate, domestic consumption revitalization, social welfare and foreign trade are all receiving increased investment.
However, some overseas media distort facts and spread misconceptions about China’s change in anti-COVID policy. Some claim China is likely to “export inflation to other economies” in 2023, while others blame China’s policy shift “exposing its people to widespread disruption and health risks.”
Indeed, over the weekend, Beijing residents once again took to the streets, and downtown bars, cinemas and restaurants were packed with patrons. The Chinese will most likely enjoy a pleasant family reunion during the upcoming Spring Festival at the end of January.
And since China still has droves of cheap labor, streamlining epidemic response measures will unlock the country’s potential as a world center for high-quality, low-cost manufacturing, meaning it won’t export inflation at all.
The author is an editor at the Global Times. [email protected]om.cn
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