January 17, 2024, 05:21 GMT
Updated 8 minutes ago
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According to Beijing, the birth rate has now fallen to 6.39 per 1,000 inhabitants
China's population has fallen for the second year in a row, underscoring concerns about future growth in the world's second-largest economy.
Data released on Wednesday showed the population will be 1.409 billion by the end of 2023 – a decline of 2.08 million from 2022.
The latest decline is twice as high as last year, which marked the first population decline in 60 years.
But experts say this decline is to be expected given the country's growing urban class and record-low birth rate.
Experts say China is following the pattern of other countries that have de-industrialized rapidly, although the pace of change has been rapid.
“That's no surprise. They have one of the lowest birth rates in the world, so that's exactly what happens: the population stops growing and starts declining,” said Prof. Stuart Gietel-Basten, a population policy expert at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
“It's kind of stuck now…this is just next year in this new era of population stagnation or population decline for China.”
Beijing said on Wednesday the birth rate had now fallen to 6.39 per 1,000 people, on par with other advanced East Asian nations such as Japan and South Korea.
The country has seen declining birth rates for decades – after a controversial one-child policy was introduced in the 1980s to control overpopulation at the time.
The government repealed the policy in 2015 to stem population decline and has also introduced a range of other incentives such as subsidies and payments to encourage people to start families. In 2021, the limit was further relaxed to allow couples to have up to three children.
But the measures had little effect, with young people in modern cities citing deterrents such as cost of living and career priorities after a three-year Covid period.
“My husband and I want to have a child, but we can't afford it right now,” said Wang Chengyi, a 31-year-old woman from Beijing.
She told the ` that she and her partner needed to save money for another three years to cover the costs of having a child – particularly school costs.
“I want to get pregnant at a young age because it is better for my health. However, I just don't have enough money at the moment, so I have to postpone it. “It’s a shame and sometimes I panic,” she said.
Experts on Wednesday cited the impact of the pandemic in accelerating the decline in new births. However, they pointed out that the underlying economic problems were a more important factor.
Chinese internet users also drew attention to cost pressures on Wednesday.
“If you give people an easier and safer life, there will naturally be more people who want children,” wrote one user in a most-liked comment on Weibo.
China's economic woes came to the fore in 2023 as the country grappled with a widespread housing crisis, falling consumer spending and record youth unemployment in the wake of the pandemic.
Annual data on Wednesday confirmed the difficulties, showing the economy grew at one of the slowest rates in more than three decades. GDP grew by 5.2%, reaching 126 trillion yuan (US$17.5 trillion; 13.8 trillion pounds) in 2023.
This was the weakest performance since 1990 – excluding the pandemic years – which saw record low GDP growth of 3% in 2022.
China also reported on Wednesday that the youth unemployment rate was 14.1% in December – after reaching 21.3% in June, after which China temporarily suspended publication of the figure.
The latest population data is likely to reinforce some fears about the economy – as China has long relied on a now aging workforce as the main driver of its economy.
The country is facing increasing pressure on its health and pension systems as the number of retirees grows – by 2035 the number of retirees is expected to rise by 60% to 400 million.
But experts say the country has time and resources to manage the transition of its workforce.
“China is no different from other countries that have de-industrialized and moved into the service sector. The population is becoming more educated, more skilled and healthier, and they want to do other jobs instead of working in factories or construction,” said Prof. Gietel-Basten.
The government is aware of this and has been planning for this for the last decade. Therefore, it is expected to continue in this direction.”
According to the United Nations, China, once the world's most populous country, was overtaken by India last year. The population of India is 1.425 billion.
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