Former President Donald Trump's 2024 campaign recently released a 30-second commercial comparing the economic records of the two presidents.
The ad claims that gas prices, mortgage rates, income and retirement savings were better during the Trump presidency than they were under Biden.
VERIFY looked at the data for each of these claims.
CLAIM #1
“Gas prices have doubled under Biden.”
THE SOURCES
THE ANSWER
Yes, in June 2022 the price of gas was twice what it was when President Biden took office.
WHAT WE FOUND
When President Biden took office in January 2021, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States was $2.42, according to the Energy Information Administration.
By June 2022, that price had risen to $5.03 per gallon, more than double the original amount. Experts said at the time that increase was due in part to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions against Russia, a major oil exporter, as well as oil demand recovering faster than supply chains following the COVID crisis.
Since then, the price has fallen again, with an average of $3.26 per gallon in December 2023.
CLAIM #2
“Take your pay home? Up 6 grand under Trump. Under Biden? Dropped $7,000.”
THE SOURCES
THE ANSWER
Inflation-adjusted real incomes rose during Trump's term and then fell during Biden's term, but the specific numbers cited in the ad are not included in the data.
WHAT WE FOUND
Median household income has increased almost every year since the measure was collected by the U.S. Census Bureau, due in part to the nature of inflation. From Trump's inauguration in 2017 until his departure in 2021, the amount increased by around $9,000. In Biden's first year, the only year for which census data is available so far, the amount increased by about $4,000.
The Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve also record “real median household income,” which is income adjusted for inflation. Real incomes rose by about $4,000 in Trump's four years and fell by about $2,000 in Biden's first years. According to this metric, incomes performed better under Trump than under Biden, but not by such drastic numbers as the ad claimed.
The ad cites the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation for its numbers. These numbers come from two separate analyzes of economic data and policies by two different authors using two different methodologies.
To arrive at the $6,000 figure, the first analysis took the increase in “real income” at the time of publication in late 2019 – about $5,000 – and added an estimate of how much an average family was approved for under Trump Tax cuts saved – $1,400. The author does not indicate how this estimate was calculated nor does he include other economic factors in the final figure.
To reach the $7,000 figure, the second analysis claimed that American families had “lost $6,000 in purchasing power” due to inflation and also suffered from “rising borrowing costs” of $1,400 – delivered however, no source for both figures. Here, too, no other economic factors were included in the calculation.
CLAIM #3
Mortgage rates were as low as 3% under Trump and as high as 8% under Biden.
THE SOURCES
THE ANSWER
Yes, mortgage rates were as low as 3% under Trump and as high as 8% under Biden.
WHAT WE FOUND
When President Trump took office, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 4.2%, according to Freddie Mac data compiled by the Federal Reserve.
Over the course of his term, the average rate fell to 2.7% and then to 4.9%.
When Biden became president, the average rate was 2.8%, it fell to 2.7% and rose to 7.8%.
The display rounds the rates to the nearest whole number to reach 3% and 8%.
Mortgage rates currently average 6.7%.
Economists say the increases were largely due to the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates to cool inflation.
CLAIM #4
401k balances reached a record high under Trump and fell under Biden.
THE SOURCES
THE ANSWER
Record highs for average 401k balances were set under Trump, but those records were then broken under Biden in 2021. Balances then fell in 2022 before rising again in 2023.
WHAT WE FOUND
According to data from Fidelity Investments, the average American 401k balance reached record highs during the Trump administration, peaking at $121,500 in the final quarter of 2020, Trump's final year in office.
However, these records were immediately broken during the Biden administration. Average balances continued to rise, reaching a peak of $130,700 in the final quarter of 2021.
Balances took a hit in 2022, falling to an average of $97,200, but rebounded in 2023, with the latest data from Fidelity showing an average of $107,700 in the third quarter of 2023.
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