AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris
On Thursday, California regulators voted to require all new cars and trucks sold in the state to run on electricity or hydrogen after 2035, the latest move by state officials to “phase out” the use of all gas- and diesel-powered vehicles . The decision not only poses a serious challenge to California’s already strained electrical grid, but also threatens to shake the state’s economy — and likely take the rest of the country with it.
The new rule, issued by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) two years after Gov. Gavin Newsom first directed the board to consider such a policy, has been hailed as a major victory for environmental activists, although economists and engineers have major reservations expressed . Under the directive, 35% of new passenger cars sold by 2026 must produce “zero emissions,” a requirement that will rise to 68% by 2030. By 2035, one-fifth of new car sales in the state may be plug-in hybrids (electric vehicles that switch to a gas engine for longer trips), but the rest must run exclusively on electricity or hydrogen.
Although California leads the nation in terms of the number of EVs registered, with more than 550,000, that number pales in comparison to the more than 30 million total vehicles registered in the state. In the first three months of this year, just 16% of new cars sold in California were electric, a percentage that would need to more than double in just four years to meet the plan.
However, conservatives and auto industry leaders have been quick to point out that electric vehicles are hardly the “green,” “zero emissions” solution that California Democrats — and the rest of the liberal establishment — bill them as. Although the vehicles themselves are emission-free, they still have to be charged with electricity from power plants. Even in California, 65% of that electricity comes from non-renewable sources. More electric cars means more burning of coal, oil and natural gas in these power plants. Additionally, EV batteries that last around 15 years tend to end up in landfills, where they release dangerous toxins into the environment (not to mention the serious environmental and human rights concerns associated with mining lithium and cobalt to make EVs – batteries). .
In addition, there are serious doubts as to whether the California power grid will be able to cope with the increasing demand caused by such a large increase in the number of electric vehicles on the roads in such a short time. According to an analysis by the University of Texas, if every vehicle in California were electric, the state would need to produce 47% more electricity than it does today. That’s likely unwelcome news for Californians, who are already facing rolling power outages thanks to the state’s overreliance on renewable energy.
California’s ban on gasoline cars is likely to have an impact on the rest of the US economy as well. A number of other Democrat-led states such as New York and Oregon, for example, have indicated they will follow California’s example, putting automakers in a difficult position. Even Virginia has enacted laws requiring it to comply with California regulations. California alone represents a full 10% of the entire U.S. auto market, meaning its laws can — and do — dictate the direction of the market for the entire country. The problems this decision poses for California are therefore likely to be exported to other states, whether they agree with the policy or not.
With fewer gas cars on the road, many gas stations are likely to go out of business, making it harder for those with gas cars to get around. Not only does this place a heavy burden on people in rural parts of the state, but it will also discourage out-of-state tourism, an industry that contributes more than $100 billion annually to California’s economy.
Simultaneously with the entry into force of this passenger car directive, a series of perhaps even more devastating laws and regulations will come into force to phase out medium and heavy-duty gas and diesel trucks. From January 1, 2023, around 76,000 trucks with engines built before 2010 will no longer be allowed to drive under other CARB regulations. By 2040, all new medium and heavy-duty trucks sold in the country must also be fully electric – at a huge cost to transport companies that will no doubt be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
The new trucking regulations are particularly bad news for California’s vital agricultural sector. California is by far the most productive agricultural state in the country, accounting for more than 13% of the value of US agricultural output — about $25 billion a year. The state is a national leader in the production of 77 different crops and livestock, and accounts for more than 99% of U.S. production of 14 specialty crops, including almonds, olives, and raisins.
All these products have to be transported to the rest of the country. According to USDA data, 95% of the time this means a diesel-powered tractor-trailer. Even if farms and ranches can afford expensive new electric trucks, and even if California installs thousands of new electric vehicle charging stations specifically for electric trucks, it is powerless to force other states to do so, which means products may need to be transported by electric trucks in California and switched to diesel-powered trucks for the remainder of the trip – increasing costs and slowing down shipping. The result is that the nearly one million Californians who work in agriculture are likely to turn their lives and livelihoods upside down, while the rest of the country faces paying significantly more for the produce.
Specifically, these new rules must all be approved by the Biden government under the terms of the Clean Air Act of 1970. While Environmental Protection Agency officials are expected to do so without delay, they might want to reconsider lest they risk spiraling the country further into economic ruin.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_
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