The signs of dissatisfaction with the Democrats didn’t stop there. Respondents were also asked about the rise in crime and border issues. The Democrats got zeros across the board. Perhaps most troubling, some respondents said they preferred the economy under former President Donald Trump.
“Our economy is at its lowest point in God knows how long,” said a Hispanic respondent who lives in New Jersey. “We keep [sending] Donating money to Ukraine and other countries instead of helping ourselves.”
The reactions highlighted the harsh reality of the Biden campaign as it prepares for what will likely be a painful re-election. The president needs to sell his balance sheet in the economy — which he can make credible arguments for — and it just doesn’t resonate with black voters who supported him in the first place. In fact, they don’t see much progress at all.
“There aren’t many good words on this list,” said Terrance Woodbury, chief executive officer and founding partner of liberal-leaning polling firm HIT Strategies, which convened the focus group. Woodbury’s firm specializes in reaching marginalized constituencies critical to the Democratic coalition.
The HIT tracking focus group, to which POLITICO had exclusive access, identified vulnerabilities for Democrats in 2024. All respondents were granted anonymity so they could speak freely. They discussed a range of issues, but the main concern of this group was economics.
The President and other senior members of the administration have toured the country in recent weeks, updating the American electorate on what they have been doing to boost a booming economy in the wake of the pandemic. Alongside a string of legislative achievements like the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden has also pointed out that unemployment has hit an all-time low of 3.5 percent. According to the US Department of Commerce, this is the lowest level in more than half a century. He even went so far as to refer to the policies driving the recovery as “bidenomics.”
There are mounting signs that the rosy prospects Biden advocates are not resonating with the American public. A Quinnipiac University poll on Wednesday found that nearly six in 10 Americans — 58 percent — disapprove of his handling of the economy. Among black voters, Biden is afloat on the economy, but 35 percent of black voters still say they disapprove — a big difference from his 2020 performance among this group. He performs even worse among Hispanic voters: 50 percent disapprove of his dealings with the economy.
As this focus group revealed, the messages not being heard by this crucial bloc of minority voters could spell trouble for a president who needs them heading into 2024.
“We don’t know what’s going to happen,” said another interviewee, who identified as Asian American and Pacific Islander. “They’re kind of saying there might be a soft landing, but they’re also expecting some kind of recession. It’s a mixed message.”
One respondent made it clear that he was not sure he would vote for Biden again.
“I’m definitely not happy with where America was when Trump was President. And I’m not happy with where America is now that Biden is president,” said an African-American man from Cleveland, though he said he remains a registered Democrat. “Both have been presidents for years and have not had any good results. So I’m hoping that besides these two, there’s another candidate or alternative that you know of.”
Woodbury acknowledged that the President was struggling to get his message across.
“When I hear the President speak, I think he’s saying a lot of the right things,” he said. “When he talks about the Emmitt Till memorial, when he talks about the need to protect black history, when he talks about the impact of bidenomics — I mean, he says it, they just don’t hear it.”
Democratic National Committee officials say their efforts to reach voters of color are tremendous, including launching the “Campaign Readiness Project” ahead of last year’s midterm elections, which includes boot camps for organizing and coalition building. In addition, Chairman Jaime Harrison has conducted in-person events, such as in Mississippi last week, to tout the accomplishments of the Biden-Harris administration.
Cornell Belcher, a veteran Democratic pollster who has worked on both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, said it’s not yet time for Democrats to panic and that Biden is in a similar position to Obama’s Year 2011. A Gallup poll from August this year showed that Obama was in a difficult competition with leading Republican presidential candidates, including Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann. The same poll showed that Mitt Romney, who would eventually secure the Republican nomination in 2012, had a slight advantage over Obama.
Those polls didn’t hold up because, he said, the Democrats’ message was slowly gaining traction in connecting American voters to a narrative of economic success. “It’s a slow burn,” Belcher said.
Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha said it takes more than just Biden or the DNC to fund public relations on this bloc to understand what’s going on with these voters.
A veteran Democratic pollster said it’s not yet time for Democrats to panic and that Biden is in a position similar to Obama’s in 2011 when a Gallup poll showed Mitt Romney had a slight advantage over the had a democratic president. | Charlie Neibergall/` photo
“They’re still overwhelmingly voting Democrat, but there’s definitely been a blip.”
The focus group revealed the challenges Biden faces if he is to reignite the enthusiasm he enjoyed during his presidential bid three years ago.
“I don’t feel like the Democrats really have my back…or the Republicans, you know?” said a Los Angeles respondent who identifies as Black and Hispanic. “I think as president you have limited power. I mean, unless you’re someone like Trump, where he just didn’t care. He did what he wanted to do.”
This respondent praised the Trump-era economy, citing the cryptocurrency boom under the former president. He said he considers himself “in the middle of the road” politically, but has become annoyed with Biden. “Trump came in there and changed things,” the interviewee said.
When pressed about Trump’s legal troubles and what many see as an adoption of white nationalist sentiments, he added, “If you do your job, I can’t really hate that.”
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