President Biden’s bid to secure a second term in the White House begins with a concerted campaign to win credit for what he calls a record-breaking economic revival in America.
Mr. Biden will make the point Wednesday in what his advisers say is a “fundamental” speech, and against the backdrop of the Old Chicago Main Post Office, he will affirm the enduring benefits of “bidenomics” as the 2024 campaign cycle accelerates.
He will argue that his willingness to press the American government more directly into supporting key industries like silicon chips has revived production. He will say that investing in rebuilding ailing infrastructure will pave the way for future growth. And he will insist that spending hundreds of billions of dollars on programs like student debt relief will pave the way for more people to comfortably live in the middle class.
“13 million jobs have been created since the president took office,” Lael Brainard, Mr Biden’s chief economic adviser, said on Tuesday. “The unemployment rate is near historic lows, having been below 4 percent for almost 50 years. And we have seen record-breaking unemployment among groups that have all too often been left behind.”
With his speech Wednesday, Mr. Biden will give up some of his reluctance to reconcile attempts to demand credit for the recovery with the reality that millions of Americans are still struggling to break free from the economic, health, and recovering from the social disruptions of the coronavirus pandemic – This included job losses and, most importantly, the sharpest rise in prices in 40 years.
Republicans have criticized Mr. Biden for high inflation, high interest rates that make borrowing more expensive, and the cost of everyday things like health care, childcare, groceries, gas and more.
“While families suffer, the Biden administration finds itself in a fantasy world, insisting that its policies actually worked,” Tommy Pigott, a spokesman for the National Republican Committee, said in a statement Tuesday. “Americans don’t want Biden to ‘finish the job.'”
Government officials concede there is still work to be done to bring inflation down, but note that it has fallen for 11 straight months. The Council of Economic Advisers estimates that inflation in the United States is currently lower than in any other prosperous Group of Seven country.
Mr. Biden has signed trillions of dollars worth of economic legislation into law since taking office. These include a $1.9 trillion package to speed up the recovery from the pandemic recession, which economists say contributed at least in part to rising inflation, and bipartisan bills for investment in infrastructure and advanced manufacturing. Inside the party, Democrats have also passed an energy, climate and tax bill that has already led to new factory announcements for electric vehicles, batteries and more.
Government officials released new analysis this week to clarify how these laws are beginning to boost the economy. The Treasury Department has calculated that the historic pace of investment in manufacturing — led by semiconductor fabs, which is targeted by one of the bipartisan bills — has essentially doubled this year, adjusted for inflation. According to the Department of Energy, jobs in the low-emission energy sector, such as offshore wind energy, have increased by 4 percent over the past year.
In other areas, however, administration officials continue to make claims about Mr. Biden’s record that are unsupported by evidence. A White House fact sheet this week stated that Mr. Biden has “directed over $1.7 trillion in deficit reduction — a larger reduction than under any other president in American history.” That claim ignores the fact that a Much of this deficit reduction was the result of the phasing out and non-renewal of pandemic spending support programs.
There is also no mention of the deficit increasing again this year, although Mr. Biden signed an agreement with Republicans in Congress this month to reduce some federal spending. According to the Treasury Department, the deficit for fiscal 2023 was $1.16 trillion as of May, more than double the same point in 2022.
But government officials are betting that with the pandemic largely in the rear-view mirror, people will soon begin to appreciate the positive impact they think the president’s policies are having on their own lives.
“I think people across the United States are starting to see backcountry shoveling in their communities,” said Olivia Dalton, deputy press secretary for the White House. “The further we get with the implementation, the more people will feel it.”
Right now, most Americans have not given Mr. Biden the kind of credit he thinks he and his advisers deserve. Polls show about three-quarters of those polled believe the country is on the wrong track under Mr Biden’s leadership. Only about a third say they approve of his handling of the economy.
The president’s advisers believe it will take time for two things to happen: First, Americans need to shake off the economic hangover of the pandemic. And second, they must begin to feel the practical benefits of Mr. Biden’s policies.
Administration officials estimate that Mr. Biden’s spending bills and tax stimulus have already resulted in nearly $500 billion in new spending on the production of semiconductors, batteries, solar panel plants and more.
“These investments are having critical implications for the private sector,” Jared Bernstein, chairman of the White House Advisory Council, said in an interview. “They attract capital from the private sector, which needs a nudge.”
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