Desperate for economic opportunities in her home country, Marine Khachatryan found work in a flower shop on the outskirts of Moscow in 2020 while her husband got a job in construction.
But then came the invasion of Ukraine, leading to punishment of Western sanctions and a crisis in the Russian economy.
“We came here to make money and we were fine until the war. Now nobody wants to buy flowers and the owner [of the shop] keeps losing money,” Khachatryan said. “I thought about finding another job, but Russia is becoming more and more expensive.” Instead, she decided to return to Armenia. “It’s a nightmare. I can work in beauty salons again, but I don’t know what my husband will do.”
Every year tens of thousands of Armenians – especially men from smaller towns and villages – travel to Russia to work as seasonal workers, especially in construction.
Estimates of the exact numbers vary widely. Armenia itself reports that about 80,000 go to Russia for seasonal work every year. But Russian data put the number at 300,000, which would be more than 10% of Armenia’s population.
An unknown number of other recent migrants from Armenia are living more permanently in Russia, some even acquiring Russian citizenship but still sending money to family in Armenia, a critical part of the country’s economy.
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In 2021, remittances from Russia amounted to $865 million, according to the Central Bank of Armenia. That was almost 5% of the country’s GDP.
This number is now expected to drop drastically. “It could be a drop of up to 40%,” Finance Minister Tigran Khachatryan told Armenia’s state news agency on March 28.
Armenian migrant workers say many jobs in Russia are disappearing and the salaries of those that remain, once converted to Armenian drams, are unpredictable. In the early days of the Russian invasion and the swift sanctions imposed in retaliation, the ruble lost half its value, although it has since recovered.
“Salaries have shrunk and it’s possible that employers won’t be able to pay at all,” said Tatevik Bezhanyan, an expert on migration at the charity Armenian Caritas. “At the moment they can still pay, but if the situation doesn’t improve, there will definitely be problems,” she told Eurasianet.
Remittances “are likely to decline with weaker economic activity in Russia, the depreciating ruble and restrictions on financial flows out of Russia,” the World Bank said in a report last month. “A stronger contraction in Russia could force many migrants to return to Armenia, putting pressure on labor markets and tax spending.”
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the World Bank had forecast Armenia’s GDP growth of 5.3% in 2022. It has now revised that down to 1.2%.
So far this year, Russia has not released figures measuring migrant flows and how they may have changed. Normally, the Interior Ministry releases the data by April, but this year the release is late, Bezhanyan said. “My Russian colleagues say that there is only one big outflow from Russia, and so maybe they are cautious,” she said.
Seasonal workers usually come to Russia in March, when the weather permits construction work. So it’s still early to assess the impact of the new situation on labor migration, but Bezhanyan said early signs aren’t good.
“We have already received notifications that employers are having payment difficulties,” she said. One practice employers have tried to save money is to require workers to work to schedule. “But we always advise against agreeing to this as it can lead to deportation. And if there is no contract that specifies the amount of salary, they can forget about payment. We have seen problems like this before.”
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Arsen, a construction worker (who asked not to use his last name), has been working in Russia’s Urals region since February.
“When the ruble collapsed, we spoke to our foreman as we would be earning half what we were getting before,” he said. “After two weeks they told us that if we canceled our contracts and worked off the books, we could get higher salaries. We did it and now we haven’t been paid for two months.”
International financial sanctions against Russia also make sending money home more difficult, with Russia’s Zolotaya Korona service now the only way to send money to Armenia, and new restrictions on the amounts allowed to leave Russia.
As a result, many regular migrants are staying at home this year. “Some have found work here and do not complain about the pay given the cost in Russia. They can live in their homes in Armenia and see no reason to go to Russia,” Bezhanyan said.
So far, the Armenian government has only found an indirect way to address the problem. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has put forward a proposal to boost the construction sector by offering subsidized home renovation loans that include energy efficiency improvements.
“Due to known circumstances, uncertainties have arisen regarding our citizens going abroad for work,” he said at a cabinet meeting on April 15. “We have decided to set up a state program under which we offer citizens the opportunity to take out subsidized loans to renovate their homes. […] We hope that we will make a significant contribution to housing construction, the economy, small and medium-sized businesses and the fight against poverty.”
Bezhanyan is skeptical. “This is definitely an indirect approach,” she said. “It is clear that these people see the danger [in staying in Russia] and they are laying a foundation to be able to move to Armenia, but we need to take steps to prevent them from returning to Armenia and then going to another country. There needs to be a more systematic approach.”
This story was first published by Eurasianet.org.
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