To avoid catastrophe, Democrats must get a grip on the economy, education and crime.
(Barrett Emke/The New York Times) A polling station at the Topeka Civic Theater in Kansas. November 3, 2021. “There’s a certain breed of suburban voters who will vote for a moderate-seeming Democrat over the trumpets Republican, but will return to the GOP as soon as there’s an excuse to do so,” writes Ross Doutthat.
By David Brooks | The New York Times
We all make mistakes; The question is, do we learn from them? In recent years, people on the left of the political and cultural spectrum have played their part. These have contributed to the extremely bleak political outlook for the Democrats in the midterm elections. Much worse, it’s now entirely plausible that Donald Trump could win re-election in 2024.
If we want to prevent this kind of disaster, it might be a good idea to learn a few relevant lessons:
It is possible to overstimulate the economy. Many progressives argued convincingly that Barack Obama had not grown big enough to boost the economy after the financial crisis. It seems that the United States has now become too big. Inflation is at a 40-year high. Real wages have fallen. Almost 70% of Americans believe the economy is in bad shape.
Much of the inflation is being driven by global energy and supply chain issues. But at 8.5%, inflation in America is much higher than in Europe, for example. Some economists estimate that the US Democrats’ $1.9 trillion bailout added 2 to 4 percentage points to the US inflation rate.
Law and Order is not just a racist dog whistle. Yes, from George Wallace to Donald Trump, this rhetoric has been used as a dog whistle. Yes, any discussion of crime and policing must address the egregious racial differences that permeate the system. At the same time, it is true that the first task of government is to create order so that people can feel safe. Democrats do not have an effective crime-fighting stance at a time when crime is on the rise. For example, while homicide rates in New York City fell, overall crime rose 37% in March from a year earlier, driven by a 59% increase in auto theft, a 48% increase in robbery and a 40% increase in theft was burglaries. Shootings increased by 16%. According to a Gallup poll, 53% of Americans now say they are “very concerned” about crime.
Don’t politicize everything. Education has traditionally been a strength of Democrats. A 2006 Washington Post-ABC News poll found voters trusted Democrats over Republicans to be more than 20 points better on education. By the time the Post-ABC poll asked about this issue in November, the lead had shrunk to 3 points. Part of the decline is likely teacher unions’ preference to keep schools closed during the pandemic, part could be attacks by some progressives on magnet schools and gifted programs, part a perception that progressives care more about their cultural agenda than they do actual education. Republicans have certainly politicized education as well, but for some reason it seems to be working for them while it’s not working for Democrats.
Border security isn’t just a talking point for Republicans. During one of the Democratic presidential debates in 2019, almost every candidate on stage supported the idea of decriminalizing unauthorized border crossings. That was the signal that the Democratic Party had shifted significantly to the left on immigration. Today, 59% of voters believe the US has an “effectively” open southern border.
Joe Biden has never swooned in favor of decriminalization like many of his opponents, but he has yet to find policies that advance progressive goals while allaying the concerns of voters in border states. About 38% of voters approve of his handling of the issue.
“People of color” is not a thing. Creating a group identity that encompassed a vast majority of humanity has always been strange. In this country, the expression “people of color” sometimes covers a wide range of ethnic experiences. It contributes to a simplistic oppressor/oppressed narrative in which white Republicans are meant to stand on one side and POC on the other.
That made it harder to predict that in 2020 Trump would make the impressive gains among Hispanics that he did. According to a recent ICR-Miami poll, Hispanics are still leaning toward Democrats, 48% versus 23%, but their loyalty to Democrats may be weakening. More Democratic Hispanics than Republican Hispanics changed party affiliations in the past year, according to the same survey. More Hispanics agreed than disagreed with the statement “The Democratic Party was hijacked by progressives.”
Deficits matter. The Federal Budget Committee estimates that the government will spend an average of $545 billion a year over the next nine years to pay interest on the federal debt. If interest rates rise 2 percentage points above Congressional Budget Office forecasts, average annual interest costs will increase by $375 billion. This burden will crowd out spending on all other programs.
The New Deal happened once. Year after year, Democrats imagine that if they can hand checks and welfare payments to the people, allowing them to form a dominant majority coalition, they will be rewarded with votes. It is not so easy. I’ve enthusiastically supported many of these policies, but we live in a time when culture, values, and identity issues influence politics at least as much as politics does.
The biggest problem facing Democrats is this: We live in an age of fear, uncertainty, and disorder on many fronts. The Republicans are traditionally seen as the party of toughness and order. Democrats must find a stance that is tough on disorder and tough on the causes of disorder.
(` Photo/Nam Y. Huh) David Brooks, columnist for the New York Times, at the University of Chicago, January 19, 2012.
David Brooks is a columnist for the New York Times.
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