A recent poll showed a rise in positive ratings of the U.S. economy, but that doesn't give Biden a boost

President Joe Biden speaks with members of the media before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on January 30, 2024 in Washington. (` Photo)

WASHINGTON – Stocks are near record highs. Growth was surprisingly strong last year. And once-high inflation has begun to cool. But so far, U.S. adults feel only slightly better about the economy.

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that 35% of U.S. adults say the economy is doing well. That's up from 30% who said this at the end of last year and 24% who said this a year ago. While 65% still call the economy bad, that's also an improvement from last year when 76% called it bad.

Voter confidence in the economy could be a deciding factor in this year's presidential election, with it consistently ranked as a top issue. Recent economic data showed growth accelerated last year even as inflation returned closer to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target, refuting a variety of Wall Street and academic economists who said a recession is the result of efforts to reduce inflation.

President Joe Biden and his aides have made it a point to emphasize the positive economic aspects as consumer sentiment has recovered. Biden also draws an open contrast with former President Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner. Trump supporters remember with pride the economic performance of his time in office, but his tenure was marred by job losses related to the coronavirus pandemic.

Signs of a stronger economy have yet to translate into stronger support for Biden. The new poll puts his approval rating at 38%, roughly where he has been for most of the past two years. Biden's approval of his handling of the economy is similar at 35%.

Respondents interviewed for the survey often expressed their views on the economy from a personal perspective. Some judged it by their grocery bills and the prices at the gas pump. Others judged the economy by its increasing investment. Real estate prices played a role, as did the employment prospects of their adult children and the upward trend of the federal debt.

Molly Kapsner, 58, lives on a farm in Wisconsin and thinks the economy is doing “pretty well” because she has three children graduating from college this year and all have job opportunities. She voted for Biden in 2020 and plans to do so again.

“He has a lot going on at the moment and is doing quite well,” she said. “He’s just putting his head down and doing his job and not trying to start a circus in our country.”

David Veksler, who voted for Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgenson in 2020, said he was concerned about the rising federal debt. The 43-year-old software engineering manager from Denver said borrowing will hurt long-term growth, even though his investments are doing well now.

“I think he is similar to his predecessors in promoting unsustainable deficits,” Veksler said of Biden. “I’m just as negative about him as I am about Trump.”

Harry Broadnax, a 62-year-old retiree, said he is increasingly thinking about the economy in connection with the increase in migrants illegally crossing the U.S. southern border. He feels their presence drains financial resources from U.S. citizens.

“I would like to see them block the border like Trump wanted,” said Broadnax, a North Carolina native, adding for emphasis: “I’m a Democrat.”

Broadnax doesn't think he'll vote for Biden or Trump, whose criminal charges concern him.

The Biden administration has sought to place greater emphasis on the big numbers used to assess the overall economy and make its case through hard data.

Lael Brainard, director of the White House National Economic Council, told a group of reporters last week that economic skeptics had overlooked how Biden's policies boosted the job market and repaired supply chains devastated by the pandemic.

“The big mistake here was not understanding how much these inflationary pressures would be reduced by returning to work and fixing completely disrupted supply chains,” she said.

Trump has said the economy is “fragile” and “the fumes of what we've done are running out.” The Republican front-runner said on social media that stocks are rising because he is likely to return to the White House. This claim overlooks the Fed's influence and the fact that average annual growth has been higher so far under Biden than during Trump's term.

There continues to be a political divide in the way people think about the economy. As a result, there may be a limit to how much Biden's approval numbers can rise, even if the economy continues to thrive like it did last year.

Democrats remain far more likely than Republicans to say the economy is good, at 58% to 15%. Still, views have improved at least slightly since the same period last year, when 41% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans said the economy was good.

Sixty-five percent of Democrats but just 7 percent of Republicans say they approve of Biden's handling of the economy, both largely unchanged since late last year.

However, the survey showed a better outlook for the economy among some key voter demographics. For a year now, sentiment has risen disproportionately among college graduates and older adults — two groups that tend to vote more often. There's also the possibility that voters care more about the personalities of the Democratic and Republican candidates than the state of the economy.

Deborah Shields, 70, who works in direct sales, said she has noticed an improvement in the economy as her investments have improved. Still, she said her opposition to Trump will determine her election in November.

“I would never, ever, ever vote for Trump,” said Shields, who lives in Orlando, Florida. “He’s a megalomaniac.”

Richard Tunnell, an Air Force disability veteran, voted for Trump in 2020 and would do so again if the former president were on the ballot. The 30-year-old from Huntsville, Texas is a clear “no” to Biden.

“He’s just a puppet,” Tunnell said. “They’re going to throw out people like Trump who don’t give a shit, but they’re going to put in people like Biden who they can control and manipulate.”