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Rodgers, Packers odds stable despite contract rejection

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Rodgers, Packers odds stable despite contract rejection

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Uncertainty about Aaron Rodgers’ future with the Packers just got darker for those betting the NFL just a week before Green Bay is due to begin training camp. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Rodgers, the defending NFL MVP, turned down a contract extension that would have made him the highest paid player in the league and will be under Green Bay’s control for the next five seasons.

The Packers paused at +2000 to win Super Bowl 56 and +900 to win the NFC at DraftKings after the news. Bettors remain skeptical of the Packer’s immediate potential for a championship, regardless of the price.

Green Bay has only absorbed 4% of the Super Bowl trading and 6% of the NFC title trading on this site. The team had as high as +1600 to win the Super Bowl and +650 to win the NFC on DraftKings and other top sports betting early in the offseason.

The Packers are -140 favorites to win the NFC North at FanDuel. That is both evidence of the general weakness of the entire division and a confirmation of Green Bay. If Rodgers doesn’t play at Green Bay this season, the Packers are sure to start QB Jordan Love in the second year they drafted in the first round in 2020.

With all that has happened this off-season and Rodgers’ willingness to move away from a record payday, it’s hard to imagine how he or the Packers could thrive together and get back to the NFC title game in the coming season, let alone by Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reach Super Bowl 56.

Rodgers is still one of the MVP favorites

While bettors may not have too much faith in the Packers’ immediate future, they have still lagged Rodgers in the race for replay as the league MVP in the NFL futures markets. Rodgers remains +1000 to reiterate as the league MVP, the second overall choice behind Chiefs QB and 2019 MVP Patrick Mahomes. That number has held up through the spring and early summer despite the apparent uncertainty of where Rodgers will throw the football this season.

Rodgers improved over the course of the 2020 season. He finished the regular season with a 121.5 QB rating for the 13-3 Packers. He completed 70.7% of his attempts for 4,299 yards and 48 TDs. Rodgers sat at nearly +400 on sports betting apps at the end of the 2020 season before taking the award in a loss for the third time. He received 44 of the 50 submitted first place winners.

Rodgers, Packers odds stable despite contract rejection 1

The Packers begin the 2021 season in New Orleans. The Saints opened as 2.5 point favorites on most sports betting sites. This line has now been moved to New Orleans -1 at DraftKings, despite the uncertainty surrounding the Packers.

Longtime Saints QB and future Pro Football Hall of Famer Drew Brees made his retirement official last month. Green Bay is on the moneyline with BetMGM +130 while New Orleans is -160 on the same side. The total is 50.5 points.

Limited options for Rodgers

As of April, Rodgers’ “next team” odds have NFL odds on PointsBet Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook at different times and in different states. In May, PointsBet in Colorado had Rodgers -180 to stay with the Packers. The Broncos were second choice at +150.

On July 6, Rodgers stood at -150 to stay with the Packers at DraftKings, with 93% of the handle backing the bet. The Las Vegas Raiders had emerged as the second choice at +500. But less than 1% of the grip supported a move from Rodgers to Sin City. Among the other teams listed: Houston Texans (+2000), Chicago Bears (+2800), New England Patriots, and New York Giants (+3500).

Is Aaron Rodgers a Good Choice? How much would you bet on Rodgers each week?

Rodgers can either play for Green Bay in 2021, force a trade, or suspend the season. The Packers control his fate if he chooses to play as they own his NFL rights. If Rodgers doesn’t play this year, he’ll have to return $ 11.5 million in bonus money for the 2021 season.

Rodgers has already forfeited a $ 500,000 training bonus by not participating in Green Bay’s official offseason training program. If Rodgers skips the entire training camp, he will be fined a total of $ 2.05 million. Rodgers is due for a base salary of $ 14.7 million in 2021. A trade by Rodgers of Green Bay would leave the team with a dead-cap hit of $ 21.2 million.

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