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NFL Best Bets: Trevor Lawrence Over / Under Rushing Touchdowns at DraftKings Sportsbook

The football season is just around the corner and that means it’s time to dive into the futures markets DraftKings Sports Betting. One of my favorite futures markets is looking at props for seasonal players. I’m generally an under-bettor if we look at the entire season, but for this one we’re going to be supporting number 1 overall, but not in the way you might think.

As I mentioned earlier, when we look at player props that are in place for the entire season, I’m generally an under-bettor. There are simply more ways to win bets, one of which is a full 17 game season to suffer an injury and miss a few games. So it takes a very low line to put an over in my eyes, and I think we have a chance to do that here.

There’s not much downside with Trevor Lawrence – as one of the most heralded QB prospects in ages, an injury or suspension is the only way the number 1 overall selection doesn’t start 17 games in 2021. He’s the man in Jacksonville. and we know them Jacksonville Jaguars will give him every chance to succeed.

Getting four quick touchdowns for a QB in the modern NFL isn’t all that difficult. Cam Newton led the way in the QB position in 2020, storming 12 touchdowns in 15 games. He was one of 12 QBs who got at least four touchdowns last season if we include Taysom Hill in that group.

We also saw three more QBs rush to three touchdowns but only play 10 games or fewer – Dak Prescott played in five games before his season end injury, and Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa each rushed to three out of 10 starts. The point is, if it’s healthy, it’s not difficult.

For a sporty QB with a lot of mobility, it’s even easier since Lawrence was with Clemson. In his last two seasons with Clemson, Lawrence played 25 games while scoring 17 touchdowns (no fewer than eight in each season).

While college teammate Travis Etienne plays a huge role in the passing game and James Robinson made a great find backcourt, Jacksonville’s offense is missing a goal line. That could lead to more touching for Lawrence, especially after proving himself capable in college.

I’m shocked not only how low the number is on this prop, but that we can even bet it on the money. I think we could cash this in by Halloween, but as long as we make it by week 17, we’ll take it.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am not allowed to participate in public DFS or DKSB competitions.

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