and ethers are rebounding spectacularly from losses seen in the second half of May, throughout June and much of July.
August is finally looking good after nearly three months of red, with BTC hitting nearly $ 48,000 on Friday and Ether climbing to $ 3,330. The total crypto market cap is targeting $ 2.1 trillion, closer to the mid-May high of $ 2.55 trillion.
Interestingly, this time around, prices are slowly moving towards their 2021 highs without the high leverage, just as crypto assets rose in late 2020 to the ATHs of 2017. FRNT Financial CEO Stephane Ouellette said in an interview:
“We usually think of this as more of a strong rally, which means the leverage portion of the rally comes later.”
“If so, these $ 100,000 targets are very reasonable, I would suggest. The last time we saw this little leverage move, we pointed to $ 20,000, and we didn’t really see leverage aggressively enter the market until we hit $ 40,000 which brought us to 65,000 Brought US dollars. “
1 / At the beginning of the weekend we have flat funding and Bitcoin is hitting its 46,000 cap. Rolling up here makes me think that there is a good chance that some major movement is coming soon.
– Avi (@AviFelman) August 13, 2021
On Binance, BTC’s annualized daily basis is currently 3.56%, up from 41.4% in mid-April, which was just 0.2% at the end of March just before its peak. At the time of writing, the highest Bitcoin funding rate is 0.0240% on FTX, while it is around 0.1% on most crypto exchanges, according to Bybt.
ETH is 3.72% (7DMA, APY), while in February it was over 50% on Binance, compared to 131% on Bybit and 113.7% on BitMEX. Currently it is 21% for BitMEX and 3.72% for Bybit.
Meanwhile, the open interest for futures continues to rise; Bitcoin contracts are $ 16.72 billion back to May levels. That OI is up 57.4% from its late June low and is still 39.6% below its April high.
As for ether, OI is currently at just over $ 9 billion, up 104% from its late June low but a 22% decrease from its May high.
Something I didn’t mention is the lack of demand from @ CMEGroup futures in the face of this big $ BTC run.
The market share of the CME in open interest fell from 19% (February 20th) to 11% (August 13th). pic.twitter.com/wlwC1HnPLj
– Zaheer (@SplitCapital) August 14, 2021
On the CME, the OI for Bitcoin futures is $ 1.71 billion, up from a high of $ 3.26 on February 21, but down from $ 1.14 billion on July 1 – which is 10.23% of the market share is equivalent to. In contrast to BTC, OI on Eth Futures surpassed the May 14 high of $ 607.88 million to $ 648.5 million, which equates to a market share of 7.02%.
Traders on the CME are also closing their short positions, which have been the smallest since mid-May. Bitcoin net shorts fell from 1,290 the previous week to 1,104 contracts.
In the midst of this, net long positions in US dollars rose again, reaching their highest level since the beginning of March last year at 3.08 billion US dollars. The US dollar positioning has now been net long for four consecutive weeks after being net short for 16 months. JPMorgan (NYSE 🙂 strategist Nick Panigirtzoglou wrote in his latest crypto report:
“There are clear signs of an improvement in demand in the futures markets, pointing to increasing institutional demand for crypto. Momentum traders like CTAs have likely amplified recent crypto price moves as momentum signals of the shorter look-back period shifted from negative to positive for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Typically this is the case when the effects of momentum traders are most felt as they are forced to exit short positions and build long positions. ”According to the strategist, institutional crypto buying has slowed down after several months Activity reversed and skyrocketed.
This is because “the strong rebound in crypto markets over the past three weeks has surprised most investors,” wrote Panigirtzoglou.
JPM now sees “significant momentum” in the future. They have now also hit backwardation, which they previously viewed as a bearish signal. In contrast, eGirl Capital trader CL had said in early June that craving for BTC has resulted in significant profits every time it’s in backwardation.
Now JPM is also arguing “that the previous phase of weak demand is over”.
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