When BlackRock Bitcoin ETF? Detailed timeline and effects

BlackRock’s application for a bitcoin spot ETF (iShares Bitcoin Trust) has breathed new life into the market and sparked a strong rally. The hope is that BlackRock will ignite a “great accumulation race” around bitcoin, fueled by the fact that 69% of all investors have been unwilling to sell their bitcoins for over a year, Bitcoinist reported.

Market experts give the BlackRock ETF high chances of approval. Notably, BlackRock has an approval ratio of 575:1, but the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) ratio for rejecting bitcoin spot ETFs is just as clear: 33:0.

However, with BlackRock maintaining close ties to US regulators and Democratic politicians, there is room for a bullish outlook on the likelihood of approval. As K33 Research writes in its latest market analysis, BlackRock is unlikely to invest time and resources unless they rate the chance of approval as very high.

Race to be the first bitcoin spot ETF

There have been rumors in recent days that BlackRock’s ETF filing could be decided within “days to weeks,” NewsBTC reported. But what are the exact deadlines? The rules of the SEC provide a clue.

It’s important to note that the deadlines for the SEC and its decision on the iShares Bitcoin Trust depend on when the filing is posted to the Federal Register for comment. Since this has not yet officially happened, there are only approximate estimates so far.

Still, K33 Research has created a rough timeline based on SEC deadlines. Theoretically, a decision can be made within four time intervals, with the decision-making process following a scheme of fixed decision deadlines.

After the filing is posted in the federal register, the SEC has 45 days in the first time interval to approve, deny, or renew the review of the ETF. Assuming the filing is filed on June 29, the SEC’s first deadline would be August 12, 2023. Similar turning points occur 45 days later, 90 days later, and 60 days later.

See more

When will BlackRock discover #Bitcoin ETF?

The schedule depends on the publication in the Federal Register. Assuming July 29:

August 12: Extend 45 days
September 26: Extend 90 days
December 25: Extend 60 days
Final deadline: February 23, 2024.

h/t @K33Research

More details 👇

— Jake Simmons (@realJakeSimmons) June 22, 2023

K33 Research states that the SEC has a maximum of 240 days to issue a decision. This means that the market will make a decision no later than February 23, 2024 (may be delayed by a few days depending on the publication in the Federal Register).

Will Grayscale or CBOE Preempt BlackRock?

While everyone is currently talking about BlackRock’s ETF filing, there’s a chance that two more institutions could get approval, or at least a ruling, on their affairs before the world’s largest money manager.

As K33 Research shows in its ETF plan, the CBOE has submitted its “ARK 21Shares” to BlackRock and could potentially benefit from BlackRock’s momentum. Back on May 9, Cboe Global Markets applied to list and trade shares of a spot bitcoin ETF from Cathie Woods Ark Invest and crypto investment products company 21 on the Cboe BZX exchange.

Timeline of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF | Source: K33 Research

Additionally, Grayscale could also get a judgment before BlackRock in its litigation with the SEC. A final decision on Grayscale’s lawsuit may be imminent. The final verdict is expected three to six months after the hearing. The hearing took place on March 7, 2023. At the heart of Grayscale’s lawsuit is that the SEC acted haphazardly in approving futures-based ETFs and disallowing spot ETFs.

As K33 Research discusses, all market participants are currently in a race for first mover advantage. The introduction of ProShares BITO has clearly demonstrated this benefit. BITO saw $1 billion in inflows two days after launch. To date, BITO has a 93% market share among futures-based long BTC ETFs.

However, whoever wins the race, it currently seems clear that Bitcoin investors will be the winners. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, recently shared the chart below, commenting, “This is what happens when a large fund is invested [Grayscale’s GBTC] increases bitcoin demand.

Bitcoin fund holdings GBTC vs. BTC price | Source: Twitter @jjcmoreno

At press time, BTC price has taken a breather above $30,000 after yesterday’s rally and is trading at $30,150.

BTC price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image from ETF Database chart from TradingView.com

Learn Crypto Trading, Yield Farms, Income strategies and more at CrytoAnswers
https://nov.link/cryptoanswers