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17 days after the halving on April 20, 2024, the price of Bitcoin has still not responded positively. This event, which only occurs once every four years, comes in a still fragile crypto context. However, history shows that previous halvings have consistently pushed the BTC price to new heights. What will happen this time?
A promising halving despite limited short-term impact
The fourth halving in Bitcoin's history, which occurred on April 20, 2024, reduced mining rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block mined. While this event temporarily affected the network's hashrate, BTC price did not experience a significant correction.
Bitcoin was trading at around $64,000 at the time of the halving and continues to maintain these levels 17 days after the event. Historically, halvings have always been followed by a strong appreciation of BTC in the medium term:
- 1st Halving (November 2012): BTC price increased 100 times in a month
- 2. (July 2016): Price increased 30 times in 6 months
- 3rd Halving (May 2020): Price increased eightfold in 12 months
This trend can be explained by the decline in the supply of newly released Bitcoins while demand increases. The increasing scarcity of BTC naturally causes its price to rise.
However, as Goldman Sachs emphasized in a note to clients on April 12, it is appropriate not to rely solely on past cycles. Circumstances in 2024 are significantly different, with geopolitical tensions and high interest rates discouraging riskier investments. This particular situation could mitigate the bullish impact of the halving on the Bitcoin price.
ETFs, growth catalysts for BTC
Beyond the halving dynamics, Bitcoin is likely to benefit from the rise of ETFs. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 has buoyed the market, driving BTC to a new record of nearly $73,700 in March.
Certain experts, such as the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, believe that these ETFs are yet to make an impact and could potentially bring in $300 billion from institutional and retail investors. A massive capital inflow that could push Bitcoin price to $120,000 to $150,000.
In summary, despite the recent halving, Bitcoin did not result in an immediate price increase and remains above $60,000. If the situation improves, nothing will stop the queen of cryptocurrencies from crowning this halving with new records. The next phase could be explosive!
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Since I have a passion for Bitcoin, I enjoy exploring the intricacies of blockchain and cryptos and sharing my discoveries with the community. My dream is to live in a world where privacy and financial freedom are guaranteed for everyone, and I firmly believe that Bitcoin is the tool that can make this possible.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author and should not be construed as investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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