Top analyst Benjamin Cowen issues Bitcoin warning, saying BTC mirroring pattern could trigger a “significant” decline
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen warns that a pattern that preceded the last three Bitcoin (BTC) halvings is re-emerging.
Cowen tells his 789,000 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin always fell into the bull market support zone in the first quarter of the halving year.
The bull market support band, an indicator consisting of the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average, is used to identify possible support levels for Bitcoin price during the bull market.
Source: Benjamin Cowen/YouTube
According to Cowen, Bitcoin could depreciate by double-digit percentage points from current levels if it reaches the bull market support band.
“In February of the halving year, Bitcoin always marked the bull market support band… from current levels, that would represent a significant decline of around 15%.”
Cowen says whether the bull market support band acts as a support level for Bitcoin or whether BTC falls below it will depend on the state of the US economy.
“In the case of 2012 [Bitcoin halving]and in the case of 2016 [Bitcoin halving]we kept it [bull market support band] as support. But in the case of 2020, we didn't consider it as support. We had the decline of the pandemic, in the end we had a recession where the unemployment rate rose sharply…
If the economy holds up, we could recover at this level [bull market support band].
If the economy can’t hold up and the Federal Reserve has pushed us into a recession, then maybe it won’t hold up.”
Bitcoin is trading at $42,390 at the time of writing.
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