This is how much you would have to spend to carry out 51% attacks on Bitcoin and Ethereum

A 51 percent attack occurs when a single network miner or group of miners controls more than half of a blockchain network's hash rate. In theory, this would allow the attacker to block transactions on the blockchain, change the order of new transactions, and potentially reverse past transactions (so-called “double spending”) by manipulating blockchain data.

However, a recent study shows that carrying out such attacks within Bitcoin and Ethereum's current security configurations is not financially viable.

It's not worth attacking Bitcoin and Ethereum

As of December 31, 2023, and considering an Ethereum price of $2,279, a total staked ETH amount of 28.8 million ETH, and a validator count of 899,840 validators, CoinMetrics' calculations suggest that an attacker around It would take $34.39 billion to carry out a 34% attack on the network.

If the attack began on December 31, 2023, the attacker would have to cross the 33% threshold by June 14, 2024 to gain control of the network.

An attack on Bitcoin would prove just as far-fetched. Researchers estimate that the attacker would incur production costs of over $20 billion since they would have to produce nearly 40 million units of the S9.

Using the most powerful ASIC available, like the upcoming Bitmain S21, would cost around $5.6 billion by December 2023, about a quarter of the cost of using the S9. This estimate is based on a unit cost of $2,240 and a production volume of 2.5 million machines.

Although this is more cost-effective than the “naïve” approach, the study found that manufacturing at this level of efficiency and scale would require collaboration with the manufacturer. However, the attacker would likely encounter supply chain issues and possible retaliation.

“Our results suggest that the current security state of Bitcoin and Ethereum makes attacks economically infeasible and provides empirical evidence of Nash equilibrium in these networks.”

The study concluded that Bitcoin and Ethereum security measures have reached a level where the costs and dangers associated with 51% of attacks significantly outweigh the potential benefits. This suggests that hostile actions become less attractive compared to alternative strategies such as honest engagement in the network or refraining from attacks.

51% of attack risks extend beyond leading blockchains

The assessment may be true for top blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but the same cannot be said for many other networks that have emerged in the last decade.

Bitcoin SV, a blockchain that emerged as a fork of Bitcoin Cash and is primarily championed by entrepreneurs Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright, experienced three instances of 51% attacks in 2021. Likewise, the lesser-known privacy-focused cryptocurrency Firo, formerly known as Zcoin, faced a similar ordeal. Even Ethereum Classic was not spared from villains.

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