There Are Bearish Signs That BTC Is Incapable of Successfully Claiming $43,000 (Bitcoin Price Analysis)

After facing significant rejection at the $48,000 resistance level, Bitcoin recently discovered support near the key 100-day moving average, causing a slight retracement. However, if a decline occurs, the most likely scenario would be a fresh downtrend targeting clear support at $38,000.

Technical analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

Analyzing the daily chart, it is clear that after Bitcoin's recent pullback from the crucial $48,000 level, the price was looking for support in a crucial area crossed by the middle boundary of the ascending channel and the significant 100-day moving average -Average is defined at $39,000.

As a result, there was a slight correction that took the price back towards the existing fair value gap (FVG), which lies between the thresholds of $43,578 and $45,606.

This price range has the potential to provide resistance to further selling pressure and potentially even push it back towards the sizeable 100-day moving average. However, a break below this critical moving average could lay the foundation for a medium-term downtrend.

Source: TradingView

The 4 hour chart

An examination of the 4-hour chart shows a significant decline below the lower boundary of the ascending flag, taking the price into the static support zone of $39,000 and the significant 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, resulting in a notable Repentance leads.

As a result, the price experienced a bullish increase and fell back to a critical resistance marked by the lower boundary of the ascending flag.

However, Bitcoin appears to be in the process of completing a pullback to the broken flag, setting the stage for a renewed bearish phase. Therefore, in the event of a successful pullback, the market should expect a decline towards the key support area of ​​$38,000 in the medium term.

Source: TradingView

On-chain analysis

By Shayan

Looking at the behavior of Bitcoin miners becomes particularly important, especially after the recent price increase above the significant $40,000 threshold. Due to their central role in the Bitcoin network, miners' actions can have a significant impact on the market.

The Miners' Position Index Metric (MPI) shown on the chart provides a representation of the ratio of total miner outflow (in USD) to the one-year moving average. A higher MPI value means that miners are sending more coins than usual, indicating possible selling activity.

In particular, the chart illustrates a significant increase in MPI during Bitcoin's recent upward move above $40,000. However, based on MPI analysis, concerns about capitulation appear to be minimal. It appears that miners have already made significant profits and strengthened their financial position.

This resilience suggests that miners are able to weather potential deeper corrections in the BTC market in the future.

Nevertheless, caution is advised; If miners' ongoing selling behavior continues, there could be an oversupply of Bitcoin in the market, potentially leading to a significant price drop.

Source: CryptoQuant
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Cryptocurrency charts from TradingView.

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