The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission could approve all 12 pending spot applications for Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds within the next eight days.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas wrote that as of November 9, the SEC has a “window” to review all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings – including Grayscale’s conversion of its GBTC fiduciary product – in the days leading up to that To be approved November 17th. However, emphasized that this was only a possibility.
Today a new research note from me. We still believe there is a 90% chance of spot approvals for #Bitcoin ETFs by January 10th. But if it comes sooner, we’re entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all current applicants *COULD* occur pic.twitter.com/u6dBva1ytD
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
“The SEC has simultaneously issued delay orders for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity and Valkyrie,” Seyffart wrote in a Nov. 8 post on X (formerly Twitter).
“If, as we believe, the agency wishes to allow all 12 applicants to launch, this will be the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was confirmed.”
The reason for this short window is because the SEC chose November 8th as the last day of the comment period when it extended the deadline for a series of pending spot Bitcoin ETF filings.
As of November 17th, the comment period for three submissions including Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF and Franklin Bitcoin ETF will begin again, meaning they will not be approved or rejected until after November 23rd at the earliest.
While the deadline to accept all 12 applications is November 17, Seyffart added that the SEC could technically make a decision on nine of the 12 applications at any time before January 10.
Nine of the outstanding spot Bitcoin ETF applications could technically be approved any time before January 10th. Source: James Seyffart
While approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is in no way guaranteed, both Seyffart and Balchunas predict a 90 percent chance of approval sometime before January 10 next year.
Grayscale is negotiating with the SEC about the GBTC conversion
As market experts eagerly await the SEC’s decision, crypto asset manager Grayscale has reportedly begun discussions with the regulator over its application to convert its trust product GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, according to a November 9 report from CoinDesk.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Grayscale has been in contact with both the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets and the Division of Corporate Finance since winning a court battle with the regulator on August 29.
As the perceived likelihood of a Bitcoin ETF being approved has increased, optimism in the crypto market has also increased, with the price of Bitcoin increasing by more than 30% in the last three months. Bitcoin’s outsized rally has also boosted price activity in other major assets.
Related: Spot hype around Bitcoin ETFs has reignited enthusiasm for blockchain gaming: Yat Siu
Over the past month, Solana (SOL) gained an incredible 93% thanks to scaling improvements, while Ripple (XRP) and Ether (ETH) gained 36% and 20%, respectively.
While many in the industry are confident that an approval will kick-start the next bull market, other analysts are not convinced the rally will last.
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