Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency, has surged to a 26-month high, hitting $52,000, reviving predictions of surpassing its previous all-time high (ATH) of $69,000.
The market has seen a resurgence of bullish sentiments, boosted by the recent launch of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These have led to remarkable growth just one month after approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Is Bitcoin on the verge of a major breakthrough?
Investment manager and market expert Timothy Peterson, who recently made a bold claim on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), reinforces Bitcoin's renewed optimism.
Peterson specified that Bitcoin achieved an almost exact 100 percent gain in 180 days, a feat that has happened 41 times since 2015. In 78% of these cases, Bitcoin reached even higher price levels.
Additionally, Peterson's analysis of historical data suggests that the average return for the next 180 days following such a rise was also around 100%. Based on this historical pattern, Peterson believes there is a 50% chance of Bitcoin reaching the important milestone of $100,000 by August.
However, despite this possibility, as the halving event approaches, another correction could occur, which, while not threatening the bull run, could trigger significant liquidation rates as the hype around the current uptrend increases.
There is a risk of a correction before the halving
The upcoming halving event scheduled for April, combined with historical patterns, suggests that Bitcoin could undergo one final correction before the bull market resumes, representing a pivotal moment for investors.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital emphasized the importance of a pre-halving retracement, noting that historically this typically occurs just a few weeks before the actual halving event.
Looking back previous halvingssuch retracements ranged from -38% in 2016 to -20% in 2020. Based on these patterns, a retracement of around 27% is possible in the current market scenario.
BTC’s market structure is changing as the halving approaches. Source: Rekt Capital on X
Should a retracement of this magnitude occur, Bitcoin price would be around $37,900, as shown in Rekt Capital's pre-halving retracement chart. This level represents an important threshold for investors to accumulate the cryptocurrency ahead of the next phase of the halving event and the expected bull rally.
Key resistance for BTC’s development
Bitcoin's continued rise has brought its price to a critical point, with the current trading level of $52,100 attracting the attention of the founders of blockchain data and intelligence platform Glassnode.
After According to their analysis, historical data shows that the $52,000 level acted as a formidable resistance point on the weekly chart, making it a crucial threshold for Bitcoin's development.
The platform's founders suspect that a successful break of this level could trigger a surge in buying pressure, potentially leading to a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) scenario among investors.
The uptrend of BTC price on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Overall, the future direction of BTC price remains uncertain, leaving investors to consider whether the current uptrend will continue or whether there will be a possible pre-halving retracement before the uptrend resumes to surpass its previous all-time high and reach the coveted $100,000 level.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
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