The calm before the storm? BTC Attempts to Surge Above $27,000 (Bitcoin Price Analysis)

Bitcoin price is currently in a consolidation phase and it has reached the 100-day moving average of $26,922. However, two significant support areas on its way could potentially stop the ongoing decline and trigger the next upside rally.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

During the consolidation correction phase, BTC dipped slightly below the ascending channel middle trendline, testing it as a pullback. However, bitcoin price continued the downtrend by printing small consecutive red candles and temporarily stopped at the 100-day moving average of $26.9k.

If it breaks below the 100-day moving average, the channel’s lower line around $24,000 and the 200-day moving average of $23,000 could be potential price targets.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin finds support at the 100-day moving average, an attempt to clear the significant resistance level at $30,000 would be the most likely scenario.

Source: TradingView

The 4 hour chart

Analyzing the 4 hour time frame, a flag pattern was developed during the market’s recent corrective phase. Bitcoin price is currently consolidating within this flag, forming lower highs and lower lows.

However, there is a significant area of ​​support between the 61.8% ($23,923) and 50% ($25,274) levels of the Fibonacci retracement. These two well-known Fibonacci levels indicate potential targets for correction levels. Given the market situation, it is likely that the price will continue the correction phase until it reaches this critical support zone.

Source: TradingView

On-Chain Analysis

The chart below shows the SOPR ratio metric along with the bitcoin price since the 2015 bear market. The SOPR ratio is measured by dividing the values ​​of the SOPR values ​​of long-term holders by the values ​​of short-term holders. As in the previous two down cycles in 2015 and 2019, it has consistently signaled long-term investment opportunities.

This ratio hit its lowest level since 2019 — around 0.53 — in December 2022, signaling the start of an upward phase in the market. It is currently experiencing an uptrend above 1 which has historically coincided with successful bull runs in the cryptocurrency market.

While it is uncertain if the bull market is complete, as long as the SOPR ratio stays above one, the buyers are expected to continue to dominate.

Source: CryptoQuant
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Cryptocurrency Charts by TradingView.

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