The fourth Bitcoin halving expected today was successfully completed, halving miners' rewards from 6.25 to 3,125 Bitcoins. Bitcoin's value fluctuated leading up to this event, falling about 5% this week to a value of around $63,880. The Bitcoin halving affects supply dynamics by halving the creation of new Bitcoins every four years, reducing inflation and potentially increasing the price due to scarcity and constant or increasing demand. Can the price of BTC go against the expectations of crypto enthusiasts and investors and trigger a downtrend?
Current Bitcoin price action
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 2.00% in the last 24 hours and is now at $63,666.15. Despite this, it remains the leading cryptocurrency with a market cap of $1.25 trillion. Trading volume fell by 36.15%, indicating a possible decline in market activity.
Various scenarios present opinions and views from crypto industry experts and analysts regarding the next price movement of Bitcoin price after the Bitcoin halving in 2024.
Scenario 1: Bitcoin price is likely to fall
Some industry leaders have a negative outlook on BTC price action.
JP Morgan analysts are taking a cautious approach to the BTC price post-halving, predicting a possible drop to $42,000 due to lower rewards and higher production costs impacting miner profitability. The bank emphasizes that Bitcoin production costs have influenced its prices in the past, estimating the post-halving range at $26,500 to $53,000 before potentially falling to $42,000.
A 20% drop in the network’s hash rate post-halving could further contribute to this price decline. Miners with lower costs and efficient rigs are expected to perform better, while listed miners could increase their market share after the event. Scorpion Casino's $SCORP presale token has raised $5 million from 10,000 participants and offers daily staking rewards.
The analysts' views were echoed by Marathon CEO Fred Thiel, who mentioned that the halving rally had already been taken into account, which accelerated the post-halving rally.
On the other hand, research director Markus Thielen of 10x Research predicted on April 13 that there could be a $5 billion miner sell-off after the halving, which would lead to a decline in market prices.
#Bitcoin miners could sell $5 billion worth of BTC after halving – #Altcoin graveyard? https://t.co/gLRgs8yyGg pic.twitter.com/fqPmVZ7Isi
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) April 12, 2024
Crypto analyst Cold Blooded Shiller, meanwhile, noted that despite optimism about Bitcoin's strength, recent trends may not be consistent with historical patterns. Factors such as spot approval of Bitcoin ETFs, fundamental developments or general market sentiment could contribute to Bitcoin's current resilience.
However, admitting potential downside risk, such as a -30% correction, raises legitimate concerns. Historically, Bitcoin has seen significant pullbacks, and if it were to fall to the $51,000 level, it could reshape the market landscape.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin price is likely to rise
Industry experts such as venture capitalist Tim Draper predict a significant increase in Bitcoin's value by 2024. They cite investments in spot ETFs and the just-completed halving as key drivers. Draper predicts Bitcoin's valuation will triple, with a potential value of $250,000 by the end of the year.
The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US has sparked new interest, offering an easier investment option for those skeptical of direct ownership. Bitcoin's limited supply and growing acceptance as a payment method make it more attractive than fiat currencies, which are subject to inflation. Draper sees women's acceptance of Bitcoin as a catalyst for its value to exceed $250,000.
By using Bitcoin ETFs, investors can diversify their portfolios without deviating from traditional fund management and integrate Bitcoin's potential growth into their investment strategy. Bitcoin's role as a hedge against inflationary pressures and government fiscal policies is highlighted, noting a shift in trust towards Bitcoin over traditional currencies.
Experts' positive outlook on Bitcoin's future value highlights the importance of expanding the user base and increasing demand to drive market growth.
With @CNBC @WebSummit. This is why @bitcoin will reach $250,000. https://t.co/DqARhl8pAu
— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) December 16, 2022
On the other hand, Rekt Capital, a popular crypto trader and analyst, claims that Bitcoin price could rise, but not immediately after the halving. He claims that in its bull market, BTC typically peaks around 518-546 days after the halving. The next peak could occur in mid-September or mid-October 2025 if history repeats itself.
However, Bitcoin is currently showing signs of acceleration, reaching new all-time highs around 260 days earlier than expected. Nevertheless, a pre-halving retracement has slowed the cycle by 30 days so far. This could potentially cut the typical cycle length in half.
Another perspective suggests that a bull market peak could occur 266-315 days after an old all-time high is broken, so the next peak may be in December 2024 or February 2025. Both perspectives should be taken into account as the Bitcoin cycle progresses, with the cycle being influenced by retracements and consolidations. The timing of the peak of the bull market could be pushed further into the future if these slowdowns continue.
Diploma
The fourth Bitcoin halving has led to various predictions about where the Bitcoin price will go next. Although some experts predict a possible decline in BTC value after the halving, attributing this to lower rewards and higher production costs impacting miners' profits, others, like venture capitalist Tim Draper, are optimistic and positive about the significant growth potential through spot ETFs addresses sentiment around the halving. As Bitcoin advances, its price changes are influenced by various factors such as market sentiment, regulations, and investor actions. Despite short-term changes, Bitcoin's continued importance in the cryptocurrency world is demonstrated by its resilience and market dominance.
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