Bitcoin markets experienced a rare welcome bounce this week following the Grayscale court victory. but the pump was low and the crypto climate remains cool. Analysts currently assume that the rest of this year will see a longer accumulation phase.
Hope and excitement over the crypto industry’s recent legal victory may be premature as markets remain in a long-term state of consolidation.
Bitcoin accumulation continues
On Aug. 29, bitcoin prices surged $2,000 following Grayscale’s court victory over the SEC. However, the asset has not even broken the previous support-resistance level of $29,000 and has already started to pull back.
Analyst and stock-to-flow developer PlanB said market patterns were repeating those of previous cycles. Bitcoin is hovering around its two-year realized price as it has for the last three cycles leading up to the halving.
The realized price or cap is the value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved at. It could also be viewed as an approximation of the amount the entire market paid for its BTC.
“Bitcoin’s traditional dance around the 2-year realized price (dark blue), a few months before a halving and before the start of the stage 2 bull market. Patience.”
Realized BTC price. Source: X/@100trillionUSD
Additionally, the six-month period leading up to a halving has always been slow, particularly during August and September.
Fellow analyst IncomeSharks echoed this sentiment, saying, “We should have all winter to accumulate BTC before 2024.” He added,
“Ideally, a local bottom forms in October. Winter is rarely good for cryptocurrencies but usually makes for amazing contributions.”
Another drop was predicted, followed by a consolidation around the $25,000-$26,000 level for a couple of months into the end of the year.
Bitcoin accumulation zone and BTC price prediction. Source: X/@IncomeSharks
CryptoQuant analysts reported that the recent BTC rally was driven by derivatives exchanges, not spot exchanges. This suggests that there was very little retail action or BTC buying on the spot markets in response to the news.
BTC Price Outlook
Additionally, we can see this thought in BTC spot prices, which have already started falling after surging to $28,000 in late Tuesday trading.
Bitcoin is already down 2% from that peak and is trading at $27,427 at the time of writing.
BTC price in USD 1 month. Source: BeInCrypto
Additionally, despite one of the most upbeat legal results of the year, the asset is still down 6% over the past two weeks.
It seems that the “crypto winter” is still underway.
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