Tether co-founder William Quigley said Bitcoin could potentially rise to $300,000 at the peak of the current bull market based on historical patterns from past halvings.
He shared these insights in an interview with CNBC, where he discussed the market conditions affecting Bitcoin as the halving approaches. Quigley clarified that his analysis was not a prediction but a possibility if historical patterns hold true.
He said:
“Applying the historical patterns would suggest that Bitcoin is above $300,000 at the peak of this next bull market.”
The next Bitcoin halving is expected on April 18 and is expected to halve the Bitcoin mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3,125 BTC. This effectively reduces the daily supply from 900 BTC to 450 BTC.
Stronger fundamentals
Quigley argued that Bitcoin is now on stronger fundamental footing than it was before the last halving in May 2020. He said the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and an increase in derivatives volume are key milestones that distinguish the current landscape from the past.
He added that the ETFs have received notable interest and recently “hit a record” as their assets under management surpassed $50 billion. The 10 ETFs collectively held approximately 740,000 BTC as of March 6th.
The ETF's strong performance pushed Bitcoin close to its all-time high weeks before the halving – something that has never happened before.
Quigley said the ETFs have created a significant shift in the mix of institutional and retail interest in Bitcoin. Unlike the pre-2020 period where there was a predominantly retail-driven market, today there is a significant influx of institutional money pursuing Bitcoin.
Mood controlled
Quigley attributed the shift in sentiment to the flagship digital asset's characteristic volatility and its unique position as a sentiment-driven, globally traded asset without traditional financial metrics such as corporate earnings or price-to-earnings ratios.
He said:
“Bitcoin is perhaps the only globally traded asset whose demand is based solely on sentiment.”
According to Quigley, sentiment-driven investing has unlimited potential and could spark an unprecedented rally, possibly the largest ever.
With the halving approaching, Quigley expects Bitcoin to continue its historical trend of significant gains post-event. He also noted that in addition to Bitcoin, other digital assets such as Ethereum and Solana were also likely to rise and potentially see higher profits due to their smaller market capitalization.
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