The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 2.24% last week, its third straight weekly gain. In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) posted a tiny gain of 0.8%, suggesting consolidation below $38,000. The outlook for risky assets remains bullish as the US dollar index begins to fall.
Cryptocurrency investors have not divested from their Bitcoin holdings even after the 125% rally in 2023, indicating their long-term bullish view. Reflexivity co-founder William Clemente posted a chart from Glassnode on X (formerly Twitter) showing that 70% of Bitcoin in circulation was neither sold nor transferred last year.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Investors have also increased their exposure to global cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) in 2023, according to a report from digital asset platform Fineqia obtained by Cointelegraph. Fineqia reported that crypto ETP assets under management increased by 91% from January 1 to October 31, 2023.
If Bitcoin fails to break through resistance, will it enter a deeper correction? Will altcoins also fall, or could they buck the trend? To find out, let’s analyze the charts.
Price analysis of the S&P 500 index
The S&P 500 Index rose above the downtrend line on November 14, signaling the end of the correction phase.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView
The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the relative strength index (RSI) is in overbought territory, suggesting that bulls are in charge. There is a minor resistance in the 4,512-4,541 area that could lead to a pullback.
On the other hand, the 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) (4,395) is likely to act as strong support. If the price recovers from this level, it will indicate that the trend has turned positive. This will increase the prospects of a rally to 4,650.
On the other hand, if the 20-day EMA declines, the index could fall to the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) (4,340). Sellers need to pull the price below this support to indicate strength.
US Dollar Index price analysis
The US Dollar Index turned lower from the 20-day EMA (105) on November 14 and fell below the descending channel pattern.
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView
This began a correction that reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 103.46. The 20-day EMA has started to fall lower and the RSI is near the oversold zone, suggesting that bears are in charge.
If the 103.46 level is broken, the decline could extend to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 102.55. Buyers are likely to vigorously defend the 103.46 to 102.55 zone. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA.
Bitcoin price analysis
After finding support at the 20-day EMA ($35,925), Bitcoin gradually moved towards the key resistance at $38,000. The Bears have guarded this level twice in the past; Therefore, they will try to do the same thing again.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price drops sharply from the overhead resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it could trigger stops from several short-term traders. This could trigger a correction in the BTC/USDT pair that could reach $34,000 and subsequently $32,400.
On the other hand, if the bulls break the $38,000 resistance, it will indicate the start of the next phase of the uptrend. The pair could rise to $40,000, which in turn is likely to act as significant resistance. The rising moving averages and the RSI in positive territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) has formed a large ascending triangle pattern that will complete on a break and close above $2,200. This bullish setup has a target of $3,400.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Bulls are buying dips to the 20-day EMA ($1,949), suggesting lower levels continue to attract buyers. If the price stays above the psychological level of $2,000, the ETH/USDT pair could attempt a rise to $2,090 and then to $2,200.
On the other hand, if the price declines and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it would be a signal that the bears are attempting a comeback in the near term. The pair could then fall to the 50-day SMA ($1,779).
BNB price analysis
Bulls have managed to keep BNB (BNB) above the 20-day EMA ($242) over the past few days, indicating that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Next, bulls will attempt to push the price above $258 and retest the formidable resistance at $265. A break and close above this level completes a round bottom pattern. The BNB/USDT pair could then rise to $305 as there is no major resistance in between.
On the other hand, if the price declines and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it indicates that the bulls are losing their control. The pair could fall to the immediate support at $235. This level is likely to act as solid support, but if breached, the correction could extend to the 50-day SMA ($227).
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) fell below the 20-day EMA ($0.62) on November 16, but the bears failed to push the price to the next support at $0.56. This suggests that lower levels are attracting buyers.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The XRP/USDT pair is trading between $0.74 and $0.56. If buyers push and hold the price above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that a recovery rally has begun. The pair could then rise to $0.67 and later to $0.74. Price movement within this range is likely to continue to remain random and volatile.
A break above $0.74 or a break below $0.56 could trigger a trend move. If the price stays above $0.74, the pair could rise to $0.85. On the other hand, a fall below $0.56 could send the pair down to $0.46.
Solana price analysis
Buyers are struggling to keep Solanas SOL (SOL) above $59, suggesting bears remain active at higher levels.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
A small plus point for the bulls is that they haven’t given up much ground to the bears. This suggests that buyers are not rushing to sell their positions as they expect the uptrend to continue. On the other hand, a break and close above $68.20 could pave the way for a recovery to $77.
This bullish view will be invalidated in the near term if the price declines and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($51.39). The SOL/USDT pair could then fall to the crucial support at $48.
Related: ARK and 21Shares Update Spot Bitcoin ETF Application as Next SEC Deadline Approaches
Cardano price analysis
Cardano’s ADA (ADA) witnessed a tough battle between bulls and bears near the $0.38 level in the last few days.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The rising moving averages and the RSI in overbought territory suggest that bulls have the advantage. If the price stays above the $0.38-$0.40 resistance zone, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to $0.46.
If bulls want to prevent the uptrend, they will need to quickly push the price back below the 20-day EMA ($0.35). If that happens, several short-term bulls could book profits and the pair could slide to the 50-day SMA ($0.30).
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been gradually rising over the past few days. Bulls pushed the price above $0.08 on November 17 but failed to sustain the breakout.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price turned lower on November 18th and fell to $0.08. A positive sign is that bulls are trying to defend the $0.08 level. If they succeed, it would signal that $0.08 has crossed into the support zone. This will improve the prospects of a resumption of the uptrend. The DOGE/USDT pair could then reach $0.10.
The RSI is showing signs of bearish divergence, suggesting that momentum may be slowing. Sellers need to pull and hold the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.07) to take control.
Chainlink price analysis
Sellers attempted to push Chainlink’s LINK (LINK) below the 20-day EMA ($13.64) on November 17 and 18, but the candle’s long tail suggests solid buying at lower levels.
LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
There is a small resistance at $15.40, but if this level is reached, the LINK/USDT pair could retest the local high at $16.60. Sellers are once again expected to mount a vigorous defense at this level, but if bulls do not give up much ground, the likelihood of a break above $16.60 increases.
On the other hand, if the price declines from $15.40, it will suggest that the bears are selling at higher levels. The trend will shift in favor of the bears if they manage to sink and sustain the price below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $12.83.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making their decision.
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