In a recent podcast appearance, Arthur Hayes, the former head of BitMEX, provided a sobering prediction about the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Bitcoin (BTC).
Hayes believes Bitcoin’s expected surge to an all-time high of $70,000 is unlikely to materialize this year, dampening hopes from investors and traders. However, it points to a possible bullish reversal in 2024, sparked by a significant event that could shape the direction of the market.
Bitcoin surge to $70,000 will be delayed
During an episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Hayes shared his take on Bitcoin’s price action. He pointed out that a breach of $70,000 is not expected in 2023.
Instead, Hayes suggests that next year’s expected halving will play a crucial role in determining market direction. While the delay may disappoint some, he remains optimistic about a potential breakthrough in the near future.
The former head of BitMEX believes that the upcoming halving in 2024, an event that will halve Bitcoin’s block reward, will be a defining moment for the market. He anticipates a likely breach of $70,000 during that period.
However, his long-term forecast raises concerns about an impending “blow-off top” in 2025 or 2026, possibly portending a significant societal event or turmoil he calls “Armageddon.” Hayes attributes this potential turmoil to factors such as excessive money printing and growing global discontent.
Hayes remarked:
Next year, 2024, we have that halving ahead of us. I think this will be a good year. I don’t think we’re going to hit $70,000 this year. Next year we’ll cross that hurdle and then we’ll peak in 2025, 2026. And then it’s Armageddon.
Current BTC price action
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown a potential upside for the past week. The largest crypto asset by market cap is up 4.3% over the past week. In the last 24 hours, BTC has gained 2.8%.
Bitcoin (BTC) price is moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is currently trading at $27,925 after trading slightly above $28,000 on Sunday. Bitcoin’s trading volume has surged from $5 billion last Monday to $12 billion in the past 24 hours, indicating potential upward momentum. Additionally, the asset’s market cap has increased by more than $20 billion in the past seven days.
However aAccording to Hayes, the increasing practice of quantitative easing, injecting more money into the economy, has created a volatile situation that could explode in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
He warns of rising geopolitical tensions and lack of confidence, claiming these factors are creating a “tinderbox” that could trigger a period of immense volatility for Bitcoin. Hayes emphasizes the importance of navigating these uncertain times, both for individuals seeking financial stability and for the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
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