Majority of bitcoin holdings remain untouched for at least a year as macro tailwinds brew: analyst Will Clemente
Closely followed Bitcoin analyst Will Clemente says some bullish fundamentals are developing behind the scenes for BTC.
The popular analyst shares data from Glassnode with his 605,000 Twitter followers showing that the majority of Bitcoin’s supply has remained untouched for at least a year, which is very close to an all-time high for the metric.
“63.15% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in at least a year.
That’s just 0.3% down from an all-time high.”
Source: Will Clemente/Twitter
In the latest Blockware Intelligence newsletter, Clemente says that one of the main forces driving Bitcoin accumulation is the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) initiative to acquire the top billion-dollar crypto to become a BTC-backed stablecoin – to create a reserve.
“Apart from the correlation to risk in stocks, another driver of capital inflows was the Luna Foundation Guard accumulating a bitcoin reserve; both directly and through front-running and general narrative momentum. LFG now holds 30,727 BTC, approximately $1.5 billion at current market prices.”
The analyst says short-term holders (STHs), or investors who have held their BTC for less than 155 days, are almost making profits again on average. He adds that the bullish momentum could be confirmed if the price stays above the average realized price for short-term holders for longer, which is around $46,000.
“For now, bitcoin is back above the holder’s short-term realized price, a psychological level we’ve talked about time and time again. I would like to see more than a daily close on this to be confident the momentum will continue.”
Source: Blockware Intelligence
Clemente also points out that much of the Bitcoin derivatives market tends to be collateralized with stablecoins instead of crypto, which he says can prevent sudden volatile moves to the downside as traders use more stable collateral compared to BTC.
“One macro shift notable in the Bitcoin derivatives market is the percentages of crypto-backed futures open interest versus stablecoins. This creates a healthier environment for the market. Why? When longs are collateralized with BTC, they have negative convexity; This means that if the price goes against them, not only will their PnL (profits and losses) go down, but the value of their collateral will also go down. With stablecoins as collateral, this effect no longer exists.”
Source: Blockware Intelligence
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is exchanging hands for $46,330.
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