According to one analyst, history suggests that the current bitcoin (BTC) correction could be the last fake trick down before the crypto king explodes into a new macro bull run.
Pseudonymous analyst TechDev shares his 417,000
“Either the coming months will surprise the market again, or this time it’s really different.”
Source: TechDev/X
The trader has been known to monitor the global liquidity cycles which it plots by comparing the China 10-Year Bonds (CN10Y) to the US Dollar Index (DXY). TechDev’s chart appears to use the True Strength Indicator (TSI) to measure the momentum of the CN10Y versus the DXY.
TechDev’s chart suggests that the TSI is showing a bullish cross, a technical value that was also present at the start of previous Bitcoin bull markets.
TechDev also bases its analysis on the Supertrend indicator, which generates bullish and bearish signals depending on whether the price breaks through previous opening or closing levels in a given timeframe.
He says that an optimal scenario for Bitcoin would be to reach the two-month supertrend level of around $50,000, represented by the red line on the chart, before it tests support around $30,000 and then turns into a parabola.
According to TechDev, this move will allow Bitcoin’s two-month chart to drop to the Bollinger Bandwidth Indicator (BBW) support area, a level that signaled the start of the 2017 and 2020 bull markets.
Traders use the BBW indicator to measure an asset’s volatility.
Says TechDev,
“I want to see a rise on the 2-month Supertrend + a retest to complete the 2-month compression.”
Source: TechDev/X
The analyst also draws a comparison between now and 2016, where BTC spent several months above the Gaussian channel testing it as support and consolidating before transitioning into a clear uptrend.
Based on the comparison, BTC could repeat its 2016 recovery, consolidating just above the Gaussian channel for an extended period before climbing to all-time highs.
The Gaussian channel is an indicator that tries to define the trend of an asset.
Says TechDev,
“Stay over the center of the Gaussian channel.”
Source: TechDev/X
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $26,116.
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