After a meteoric rise from $26,750 on October 12 to a monthly close of $34,667 on October 31, Bitcoin (BTC) price is still rising in November. BTC rose from $36,500 to multi-day support at $37,400 on the day Grayscale Investments met with the SEC about its Bitcoin ETF application.
But its gains saw greater volatility this month, hovering at $38,000 as Bitcoin ETF bulls held their breath. This could be a sign that the Bears are gaining confidence. Meanwhile, bulls may lose momentum the longer markets wait for SEC approval.
SEC Approval Key vs. Operating Schedule
Brian Dixon, president of long-only crypto hedge fund Off The Chain Capital, recently said he doesn’t expect a big rally when the SEC finally approves one or more Bitcoin ETF products:
“You will likely see a short-term increase and then a decline. But when they come online, we will see a much larger increase.”
However, Dixon added that he believes there is a lot of demand in traditional markets: “I think there are a lot of institutional investors waiting for regulated entry.” However, he says that the difference between approval and operating timelines is will be crucial.
Bitcoin ETF is cautious: BTC is overbought
His prediction echoes a similar one from Peter Schiff. The founder and chief strategist of Euro Pacific Capital said in late October that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF “will mark the peak of the rally.”
Schiff warned that a sell-off could happen sooner.
Meanwhile, Mads Eberhardt, crypto analyst at Steno Research, says markets have overbought the Bitcoin ETF story. In a thread on X.com, Eberhardt wrote:
“However, contrary to another prevailing market consensus, our expectations diverge. We expect the introduction of ETFs to generate more selling pressure than buying in the near term…”
The Steno analyst argues that this bull market is unsustainable as it is primarily driven by a single narrative. JP Morgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou agree. The team said in a note published on November 15 that the BTC rally was “excessive.”
Technical analysis provides some evidence to support the Bitcoin ETF bears thesis. The RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) of Bitcoin price started a bearish divergence from the green BTC candles in November. This bearish delta between the asset’s price and RSI has widened as markets approach December.
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